Alaves vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 1-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Alaves, 24% draw, 17% Malaga — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Malaga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 7Angel PérezD
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 21A. RebbachD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 27X. OlaizD
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 33Rubén MonteroG
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3PugaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 31RafitaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 2J. CajusteM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 9ChupeF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 5Álex PastorD
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 12José SalinasD
Form going into Alaves vs Malaga
Alaves
La Liga
- L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
Malaga
La Liga
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Malaga
Alaves and Malaga have met 7 times in the records we hold, Alaves has won 4 of them to Malaga's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Alaves on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Malaga | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
La LigaAlaves 1–1 Malaga - 20 May 2023
Segunda DivisiónAlaves 2–1 Malaga - 18 Dec 2022
Segunda DivisiónMalaga 1–0 Alaves - 6 May 2018
La LigaMalaga 0–3 Alaves - 21 Dec 2017
La LigaAlaves 1–0 Malaga - 11 Mar 2017
La LigaMalaga 1–2 Alaves - 16 Oct 2016
La LigaAlaves 1–1 Malaga
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Alaves' attack rates 33% above Malaga's, and Alaves concede 15% fewer than Malaga. That gives Alaves the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Alaves and Malaga
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alaves and Malaga drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Alaves at 59% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adrian Nino 44' for Malaga, Aitor Mañas 89' for Alaves. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alaves a 6.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.3%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Malaga the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 85.2% going in: 78.5% after a win, 84.1% after a draw, 87.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 84.1%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Alaves v Malaga has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 56% / 27% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 59% / 24% / 17%: the biggest move is Alaves's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Alaves win59%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Malaga win17%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.