Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Libertad Asuncion 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Libertad Asuncion, 20% draw, 16% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad Asuncion at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 5G. FloresD
- 31T. FernándezD
- 4N. GiménezD
- 20H. FernándezM
- 6Á. CampuzanoM
- 21L. SanabriaM
- 19I. FrancoM
- 9G. AguilarF
- 11E. VeraF
- 7A. ManzurM
- 23N. FreireD
- 28M. FernándezF
- 38J. Estigarribia MezaD
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 1Á. GonzálezG
- 33C. MartínezM
- 10L. MelgarejoM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 1N. CampisiG
- 22S. OcamposD
- 2M. BarretoD
- 6F. WiechniakD
- 23A. CanteroD
- 14F. BenitezM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 24S. BeltránM
- 21M. OjedaF
- 20I. MaggiF
- 25J. RamosF
- 28A. BalbuenaD
- 18F. BobadillaM
- 3Á. BrizuelaD
- 37L. ComasM
- 40A. EspinolaG
- 30T. FrancoM
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 26O. LopezD
- 8A. MaízM
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
- 16 August 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 May 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 7 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 September 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–4 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 July 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 May 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Libertad Asuncion beat Sportivo Luqueno 1–0. The model had made a win for Libertad Asuncion its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Lorenzo Melgarejo 71' for Libertad Asuncion. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Libertad Asuncion a 69.9% chance to finish in the top four: 75.7% after a win, 59.2% after a draw, 50.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.7%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.
For Sportivo Luqueno the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 48.3% going in: 31.4% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 52.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.5%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 66% / 19% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 64% / 20% / 16%: the biggest move is Libertad Asuncion's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Libertad Asuncion win64%▼ −2
- Draw20%▲ +1
- Sportivo Luqueno win16%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.