24 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: Blas Romero
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Sportivo Trinidense.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Nacional Asuncion, 28% draw, 21% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional Asuncion5%Draw93%Sportivo Trinidense2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Nelson Ariel Gauto Castillo
31'
José Gabriel Arrúa Ovelar
Hugo Adrián Benítez
52'
61'
🔁Nicolás Manáout: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo
🔁Hugo Valdezout: Ignacio Bailone
65'
69'
🔁Luis Carlos Abreu Benegasout: Luis De la Cruz
69'
🔁Diego Melgarejoout: Sergio Mendoza
76'
•Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo
Mauro Alexis Coronel Gomez
77'
Thomas Gutierrez
77'
🔁Fabrizio Jaraout: Orlando Gaona Lugo
79'
🔁Josué Colmánout: Matías Facundo Almeida Martínez
79'
82'
🔁Clementino Gonzálezout: Deivis Faustino Barone Mora
82'
🔁Nelson Ariel Gauto Castilloout: Néstor Camacho
Rodrigo Melgarejo
85'
90+2'
⚽Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo

Match stats — Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

45%Possession55%
13Shots14
1On target4
5Corners14
0.7xG1.53

Goals against chances

Nacional Asuncion0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Sportivo Trinidense1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion 4-1-4-1
  • 30S. RojasG
  • 23C. EspínolaD
  • 22R. MelgarejoD
  • 3M. CoronelD
  • 29S. VargasD
  • 15Á. Cardozo LucenaM
  • 10J. ColmánM
  • 8F. JaraM
  • 13L. MezaM
  • 18I. ValdezM
  • 9H. BenítezF
Substitutes
  • 7I. BailoneF
  • 11Matías Facundo Almeida MartínezF
  • 38T. VegaF
  • 5G. BenítezD
  • 35Elias Enrique Villlar FleitasG
  • 33O. GaonaM
  • 4T. GutiérrezD
  • 36F. PelozoF
  • 32F. PumpidoM
Coach: V. Bernay
Sportivo Trinidense 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. SamudioG
  • 23C. BenítezD
  • 40A. da SilveiraD
  • 6A. CañeteD
  • 4D. MelgarejoD
  • 5N. GautoM
  • 21G. VieraM
  • 10N. ManáM
  • 11L. AbreuM
  • 31A. MorinigoM
  • 20C. GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
  • 7N. CamachoF
  • 19A. CanoM
  • 30R. CornetM
  • 1M. DufourG
  • 22J. GamarraF
  • 9O. GiménezF
  • 37L. GonzalezM
  • 14S. MendozaM
Coach: J. Arrúa

Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

Nacional Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026

Sportivo Trinidense

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Nacional Asuncion199552614+1232
2Sportivo Trinidense1910453118+1334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

  • 15 August 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 9 May 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 9 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 1 November 2025Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 2 October 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–0 Nacional AsuncionCopa Paraguay
  • 17 August 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Trinidense

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • H. Benítez66
  • I. Valdez61

Sportivo Trinidense

GoalsAssists

  • F. Romero71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sportivo Trinidense won 1–0 at Nacional Asuncion. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional Asuncion at 51% and given a win for Sportivo Trinidense 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo 90+2' for Sportivo Trinidense. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional Asuncion a 41.4% chance to win the league: 51.5% after a win, 32.6% after a draw, 23.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 18.2 points lower than before the match.

For Sportivo Trinidense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 60.6% going in: 82.1% after a win, 62.9% after a draw, 52.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.1%, 21.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.