23 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Rubio NU vs Club Guarani Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

La Arboleda
Referee: Alipio Colman, Paraguay
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rubio NU 0-2 Club Guarani.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Rubio NU, 29% draw, 39% Club Guarani — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Club Guarani at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rubio NU0%Draw1%Club Guarani99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•William Mendieta
26'
27'
Cristian Leandro Allende
⚽William Mendieta (pen)
28'
42'
⚽Jorge Recalde
🔁Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguezout: Steven·Perez
45'
47'
⚽Jorge Recaldeassist: Imanol Segovia
🔁William Mendietaout: Mauricio De Carvalho González
56'
🔁Rodrigo Rojasout: Marcelo Rubén Acosta Ríos
56'
🔁Rodrigo Ruiz Díazout: A. Páez
69'
🔁Sergio Fretesout: E. Alfonso
69'
73'
Armando Méndez
75'
🔁Jorge Recaldeout: Martín Maldonado
76'
🔁Diego·Fernandezout: Victor·Cespedes
81'
🔁Fernando Fernandezout: Juan Manuel García
81'
🔁Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornellsout: J. Llano
88'
🔁L. Martínezout: Carlos Arrua

Match stats — Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

47%Possession53%
6Shots21
3On target7
3Corners3
1.27xG0.97

Goals against chances

Rubio NU0 from 1.27 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Guarani2 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rubio NU 4-2-3-1
  • 32L. MaldonadoG
  • 31B. BlasiD
  • 3J. VallejosD
  • 5P. ÁlvarezD
  • 14M. RamosD
  • 8R. RojasM
  • 23Tobías LeivaM
  • 26S. FretesM
  • 10W. MendietaM
  • 35L. MontielM
  • 9R. Ruiz DíazF
Substitutes
  • 18M. AcostaM
  • 7E. AlfonsoM
  • 1T. CanterosG
  • 16J. GonzálezD
  • 27A. LedesmaM
  • 4H. MartínezD
  • 20A. PáezF
  • 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
  • 11M. RoldánF
Club Guarani 4-1-4-1
  • 31M. MartínezG
  • 4A. MéndezD
  • 2I. SegoviaD
  • 15T. ServínD
  • 33L. AllendeD
  • 36L. MartínezM
  • 10M. AñascoM
  • 40F. FernándezM
  • 25G. GómezM
  • 26D. FernándezM
  • 9J. RecaldeF
Substitutes
  • 16Jonatan Marcelo Benítez OtazúM
  • 21C. ArrúaM
  • 38P. CoroneF
  • 17V. CéspedesF
  • 12G. DionisiG
  • 11J. GarcíaF
  • 23M. JacquetD
  • 29F. LlanoM
  • 34M. MaldonadoM
Coach: F. Arce

Form going into Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

Rubio NU

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Rubio NU1945102136-1517
5Club Guarani198742117+431

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

  • 15 August 2026Club Guarani 2–3 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 April 2026Rubio NU 0–2 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 1 February 2026Club Guarani 4–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 12 November 2017Club Guarani 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 September 2017Rubio NU 0–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 18 June 2017Club Guarani 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Club Guarani

Rubio NU

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ruiz Díaz43

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Guarani won 2–0 at Rubio NU. The model had made a win for Club Guarani its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jorge Recalde 42' for Club Guarani, Jorge Recalde 47' for Club Guarani. On expected goals it finished 1.27–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubio NU a 62.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 47.2% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 71.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.8%, 9.6 points higher than before the match.

For Club Guarani the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.1% going in: 14.6% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 3.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.6%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rubio NU v Club Guarani has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Club Guarani's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Rubio NU win32%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Club Guarani win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.