2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: 2 de Mayo 1-1 Deportivo Recoleta.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% 2 de Mayo, 24% draw, 21% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
2 de Mayo at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. LerdaG
- 2Rodrigo Antonio Gómez VillalbaD
- 21P. SosaD
- 3A. VillalbaD
- 19C. CastroD
- 16M. GómezM
- 10A. GómezM
- 37L. DelgadilloM
- 30A. FariñaM
- 27M. MoyaM
- 25A. CerveraF
- 8Á. AguileraM
- 11U. CoronelD
- 9J. SanguinaF
- 7F. CáceresF
- 17P. DelvalleF
- 20E. DíazM
- 40Marcelo GonzálezF
- 32Mario RamírezG
- 6C. RamírezD
- 13O. ToledoG
- 14C. FigueredoD
- 4M. PereiraD
- 5N. MarottaD
- 18P. RiosD
- 17W. BáezM
- 38J. FrancoM
- 21C. GarayM
- 31M. ShuppM
- 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoF
- 24T. VidalF
- 3L. CardozoD
- 7R. DomínguezM
- 6J. EspínolaD
- 36B. FerreiraF
- 33A. GonzálezM
- 1A. MarsegnoG
- 34Mathías Nicolás Masi PuschkarevichM
- 15B. MedinaD
- 28L. MendozaD
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 14 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 18 April 2026Deportivo Recoleta 5–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 February 20262 de Mayo 0–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 21 November 20252 de Mayo 0–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 30 August 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 April 20252 de Mayo 0–4 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
- A. González51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
2 de Mayo and Deportivo Recoleta drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 2 de Mayo at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Brahian Vidal Ferreira Benítez 58' for Deportivo Recoleta, Marcos Gómez 90+3' for 2 de Mayo. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave 2 de Mayo a 50.6% chance to finish in the top four: 58.9% after a win, 40.9% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.9%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.
For Deportivo Recoleta the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 84.4% going in: 69.7% after a win, 84.9% after a draw, 89.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 84.9%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on 2 de Mayo v Deportivo Recoleta has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 60% / 22% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is 2 de Mayo's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- 2 de Mayo win55%▼ −5
- Draw24%▲ +2
- Deportivo Recoleta win21%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.