Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Trinidense 1-0 Libertad Asuncion.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sportivo Trinidense, 25% draw, 28% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Trinidense at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. SamudioG
- 23C. BenítezD
- 40A. da SilveiraD
- 6A. CañeteD
- 4D. MelgarejoD
- 5N. GautoM
- 10N. ManáM
- 11L. AbreuM
- 21G. VieraM
- 31A. MorinigoM
- 20C. GonzálezF
- 7N. CamachoF
- 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
- 19A. CanoM
- 1M. DufourG
- 22J. GamarraF
- 9O. GiménezF
- 37L. GonzalezM
- 14S. MendozaM
- 29T. RayerF
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 5G. FloresD
- 31T. FernándezD
- 4N. GiménezD
- 26I. RamirezM
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 21L. SanabriaM
- 7A. ManzurM
- 9G. AguilarF
- 11E. VeraF
- 24R. VillalbaD
- 15T. VeraM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 27A. MolinasM
- 33C. MartínezM
- 1Á. GonzálezG
- 20H. FernándezM
- 28M. FernándezF
- 38J. Estigarribia MezaD
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
Libertad Asuncion
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 34 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
- 10 August 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 April 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 15 February 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 July 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 May 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sportivo Trinidense beat Libertad Asuncion 1–0. The model had made a win for Sportivo Trinidense its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Clementino González (penalty) 21' for Sportivo Trinidense. On expected goals it finished 2.20–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Trinidense a 45.5% chance to finish in the top four: 58.6% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.6%, 13.1 points higher than before the match.
For Libertad Asuncion the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 78.9% going in: 92.6% after a win, 81.1% after a draw, 71.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.4%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion has moved
First published on 5 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 25% / 28%: the biggest move is Sportivo Trinidense's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sportivo Trinidense win47%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Libertad Asuncion win28%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.