Libertad vs Leones del Norte Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Libertad 3-0 Leones del Norte.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Libertad, 28% draw, 26% Leones del Norte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Libertad at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad vs Leones del Norte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CabezasG
- 17E. PattaD
- 6B. CaicedoD
- 2R. MorinigoD
- 19O. QuiñónezD
- 20J. RodríguezD
- 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínM
- 30J. BravoM
- 80X. PinedaM
- 10G. CortézM
- 33A. ChéreF
- 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
- 49D. CoronelF
- 9E. CaicedoF
- 27S. Bueno QuinonezM
- 66J. EstacioM
- 5C. GruezoM
- 23J. GuisamanoM
- 25M. LucasD
- 1P. MinaG
- 22J. ArroyoG
- 7M. LuqueD
- 2J. MoránD
- 23N. MonserratD
- 25B. KreimanD
- 16M. de la CruzD
- 8C. VelezM
- 5T. CoppoM
- 6Emiliano GriffaM
- 99C. SolanoF
- 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
- 17T. AmiliviaF
- 18J. ArellanoD
- 4R. ArroyoD
- 55R. BorjaM
- 13O. CabezaM
- 50Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioD
- 11M. CaramutoM
- 14A. RosalesD
- 45M. RamírezG
Head-to-head: Libertad vs Leones del Norte
- 4 July 2026Libertad 1–3 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 28 February 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Libertad and Leones del Norte
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín132
- G. Cortéz65
Leones del Norte
GoalsAssists
- Juan Luis Anangonó León111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Libertad beat Leones del Norte 3–0. The model had made a win for Libertad its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Elvis Patta 26' for Libertad, Vilinton German Branda Merlin 67' for Libertad, Edu Pineda 88' for Libertad. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.03.
How the call on Libertad v Leones del Norte has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Libertad's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Libertad win46%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Leones del Norte win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.