9 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Jocay, Manta
Referee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Delfin SC 3-2 Mushuc Runa SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Delfin SC, 31% draw, 35% Mushuc Runa SC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mushuc Runa SC at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Delfin SC97%Draw3%Mushuc Runa SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
José Hernández
31'
⚽Renso Tufinoassist: Tomson Minda
35'
⚽Ronny Biojóassist: Miguel Perea
⚽Jefferson Arceassist: Danny Luna
41'
⚽Erick Zunigaassist: Danny Luna
45'
•Danny Luna
45+4'
48'
Cristopher Angulo
•Franco Ayunta
55'
Franco Ayunta
56'
62'
🔁Renso Tufinoout: Elian Caicedo
62'
🔁Freddy Minaout: Jackson Alexander González Simisterra
63'
🔁Arnaldo Zambranoout: Bryan Corozo
🔁Gerónimo Herediaout: Luis Armando Castro Garzón
66'
🔁Jefferson Arceout: Kevin Ushina
66'
75'
🔁Tomson Mindaout: Lucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldi
75'
🔁Nicolás Davilaout: Kevin Peralta
🔁Bryan Hernandezout: Maikel Reyes
81'
⚽Maikel Reyesassist: Luis Armando Castro Garzón
87'
Maikel Reyes
87'
🔁Jonathan Morochoout: Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio
90+1'
🔁Danny Lunaout: Darío Aimar
90+1'

Match stats — Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

70%Possession30%
17Shots11
7On target5
2Corners7
1.93xG0.91

Goals against chances

Delfin SC3 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
Mushuc Runa SC2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Delfin SC 4-2-3-1
  • 21B. HerasG
  • 77B. HernándezD
  • 32A. BedoyaD
  • 5O. MedinaD
  • 14E. ZúñigaD
  • 34G. HerediaM
  • 18J. MorochoM
  • 31Jefferson Stalin Arce MinaM
  • 10Danny Gabriel Luna MoránM
  • 50T. OzaetaM
  • 9F. AyuntaF
Substitutes
  • 78K. UshiñaM
  • 99Leao TenorioF
  • 11F. PerincioloM
  • 8K. MorenoM
  • 70E. EspinozaM
  • 22J. CárdenasG
  • 23L. CornejoM
  • 55M. ReyesD
  • 16L. CastroM
Coach: Juan Carlos León
Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
  • 25R. FormentoG
  • 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
  • 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  • 30F. CarabalíD
  • 33M. HernándezD
  • 10F. MinaM
  • 8A. ZambranoM
  • 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  • 28M. PereaM
  • 9R. TufinoF
  • 7T. MindaF
Substitutes
  • 61J. CaicedoF
  • 14E. CaicedoF
  • 19B. CorozoM
  • 50J. CusmeD
  • 2J. FlorD
  • 18J. GonzalezM
  • 52D. MerinoM
  • 23L. LemosM
  • 42W. PabónG
Coach: P. Vélez

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Delfin SC36108183143-1238
12Mushuc Runa SC361013134350-743

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

  • 28 August 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 3 May 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 15 June 2025Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 18 February 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2024Delfin SC 4–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 19 May 2024Mushuc Runa SC 5–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC

Delfin SC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ayunta111

Mushuc Runa SC

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Delfin SC beat Mushuc Runa SC 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Mushuc Runa SC at 35% and given a win for Delfin SC 34%. The goals: Renso Tufino 31' for Mushuc Runa SC, Ronny Biojó 35' for Mushuc Runa SC, Jefferson Arce 41' for Delfin SC, Erick Zuniga 45' for Delfin SC, Maikel Reyes 87' for Delfin SC. On expected goals it finished 1.93–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mushuc Runa SC a 69.5% chance to win the league: 78.8% after a win, 67.8% after a draw, 60.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.7%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.