Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Wieczysta Kraków.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Pogon Szczecin, 28% draw, 31% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 3K. AcostaM
- 15Hussein AliD
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 33Pascal EnguehardG
- 77M. KochalskiG
- 4K. FilaD
- 24M. WieteskaD
- 55D. DujmovićD
- 33K. PestkaD
- 20M. MaigaardM
- 12Lucas PiazónM
- 7Lisandro SemedoM
- 10T. ChristensenM
- 88C. LungoyiM
- 9E. KoulourisF
- 15A. ĐermanovićD
- 8B. LedermanM
- 23Miki VillarM
- 1A. MikułkoG
- 16A. MilićD
- 97T. MrasM
- 70P. PušićM
- 27M. VojtkoD
- 13K. ZagrodzkiD
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
- W4-3away to Piast Gliwice15 August 2026
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice9 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin beat Wieczysta Kraków 2–0. The model had made a win for Pogon Szczecin its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Darko Churlinov 59' for Pogon Szczecin, Jordi Sánchez 90+3' for Pogon Szczecin.
How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Wieczysta Kraków has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Wieczysta Kraków's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Pogon Szczecin win41%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Wieczysta Kraków win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.