17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Nantes vs Dunkerque Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Referee: Benoît Millot, France
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Nantes 2-3 Dunkerque.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Nantes, 25% draw, 22% Dunkerque — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nantes at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nantes0%Draw1%Dunkerque99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kelvin Amianassist: Wilitty Younoussa
29'
35'
Gaëtan Robail
38'
⚽Egor Prutsev
43'
⚽Gaëtan Robail
45+2'
Adrian Lebeau
59'
⚽Gaëtan Robailassist: Souleymane Keita
🔁Fode Doucoureout: Fabien Centonze
60'
🔁Wilitty Younoussaout: Igniatius Ganago
61'
🔁Ibrahima Sissokoout: Balthazar Pierret
61'
67'
🔁Egor Prutsevout: Khalil Ayari
67'
🔁Théna Massockout: Steven​ N'Zonzi
🔁Thomas Robinetout: Louis Leroux
72'
🔁Killian Corredorout: Antoine Joujou
73'
Kelvin Amian
74'
76'
🔁Souleymane Keitaout: Arthylio Nade
76'
🔁Gaëtan Robailout: M'Baye Niang
Balthazar Pierret
82'
84'
Abner
88'
🔁Jordan Morelout: Franck Leroy Atoen
⚽Ryad Hachem
90'
Lucas Perrin
90+5'

Match stats — Nantes vs Dunkerque

60%Possession40%
19Shots12
4On target4
8Corners7
1.62xG1.52

Goals against chances

Nantes2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dunkerque3 from 1.52 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nantes 3-4-3
  • 30P. CarlgrenG
  • 4S. SowD
  • 5L. PerrinD
  • 98K. AmianD
  • 13F. DoucouréM
  • 8J. LepenantM
  • 28I. SissokoM
  • 26R. HachemM
  • 23W. YounoussaF
  • 27T. RobinetF
  • 12K. CorredorF
Substitutes
  • 18F. CentonzeD
  • 75A. CherniD
  • 1M. DupéG
  • 24F. GuilbertD
  • 7A. JoujouF
  • 37I. GanagoF
  • 19Louis LerouxM
  • 44B. PierretM
  • 17D. AssoumaniM
Coach: Grégory Poirier
Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 2O. TouréD
  • 30AbnerD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 9G. RobailM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 19S. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 15S. NzonziM
  • 99M. NiangF
  • 23A. NadeF
  • 21L. LoussilahoD
  • 93A. DahoF
  • 35Firas BelabdelliM
  • 7K. AyariF
  • 25Franck AtoenM
  • 16M. PrévotG
Coach: Albert Sánchez

Form going into Nantes vs Dunkerque

Nantes

Ligue 2

  • D0-0Reims10 October 2026

Dunkerque

Ligue 2

  • L0-1Annecy9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Nantes123361418-412
10Dunkerque124351717015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nantes vs Dunkerque

  • 27 July 2024Nantes 2–1 DunkerqueFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Nantes and Dunkerque

Nantes

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunkerque won 3–2 at Nantes. The model had leaned towards a win for Nantes at 53% and given a win for Dunkerque 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Kelvin Amian 29' for Nantes, Egor Prutsev 38' for Dunkerque, Gaëtan Robail 43' for Dunkerque, Gaëtan Robail 59' for Dunkerque, Ryad Hachem 90' for Nantes. On expected goals it finished 1.62–1.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nantes a 30.8% chance to finish in the top four: 35.2% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.7%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.

For Dunkerque the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.6% going in: 13.2% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nantes v Dunkerque has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Nantes's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Nantes win53%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Dunkerque win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.