17 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lusail City vs Al Shamal Stars League prediction & result

Lusail Stadium, Lusail
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Lusail City 0-0 Al Shamal.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lusail City, 27% draw, 32% Al Shamal — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lusail City at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lusail City4%Draw92%Al Shamal4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Omid Ebrahimi
33'
40'
Musab Khoder
Franco Russo
45+1'
Ali Nemati
50'
🔁Naif Al-Hadhramiout: Khaled Mansour
57'
59'
Mowafak Awad
64'
🔁Mowafak Awadout: Abdelkarim Hassan
64'
🔁Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhaneout: Riyad Mahrez
64'
🔁Ali Assadallaout: Fahad Waad
🔁Mohamed Aiashout: Ali Karami
75'
🔁Farhad Zavoshiout: Tiago Geralnik
82'
🔁Khaled Mohammedout: Mohamed Khaled
82'
Rodrigo Machado
85'
85'
🔁Nassim Benaissaout: Abdullah Abdulsalam

Match stats — Lusail City vs Al Shamal

37%Possession63%
9Shots9
3On target2
3Corners9
0.67xG0.65

Goals against chances

Lusail City0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Shamal0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lusail City 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. ShakouriG
  • 2A. PilaliD
  • 4F. RussoD
  • 27M. AiashD
  • 66A. NematiD
  • 6O. EbrahimiM
  • 7F. ZavoshiM
  • 20Naif Al HadhramiM
  • 8Khaled MohammedM
  • 11H. FirouziM
  • 19RodrigoF
Substitutes
  • 77Mohamed Al AshwalG
  • 22T. GeralnikM
  • 70Mohamed KhaledF
  • 10S. JjbrilM
  • 30H. KamalD
  • 3Ali MalolahD
  • 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
  • 96Amir HassanG
  • 5A. Al KaratlyM
Coach: Emanuel Mesquita
Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 2Moufak AwadD
  • 28N. BenaïssaM
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 10Álex ColladoM
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 22W. SaïdM
  • 5M. Ben RomdhaneF
Substitutes
  • 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
  • 47Fahad WaadD
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
  • 14Omar AliF
  • 16F. BaisD
  • 26R. MahrezF
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
Coach: David Prats

Form going into Lusail City vs Al Shamal

Lusail City

Stars League

  • L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026

Al Shamal

Stars League

  • L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lusail City93331311+212
6Al Shamal93331817+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lusail City vs Al Shamal

  • 20 February 2021Lusail City 0–1 Al ShamalSecond Division
  • 1 January 2021Al Shamal 0–1 Lusail CitySecond Division
  • 29 October 2020Lusail City 1–5 Al ShamalSecond Division
  • 22 January 2020Lusail City 1–2 Al ShamalSecond Division
  • 24 October 2019Al Shamal 3–1 Lusail CitySecond Division

Leading scorers: Lusail City and Al Shamal

Lusail City

GoalsAssists

  • Rodrigo60

Al Shamal

GoalsAssists

  • A. Zouhzouh61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lusail City and Al Shamal drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusail City at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.67–0.65.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.