18 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC Stars League prediction & result

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Al-Gharafa 0-0 Al-Rayyan SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Al-Gharafa, 22% draw, 60% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Rayyan SC at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Gharafa3%Draw91%Al-Rayyan SC6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ayoub Al-Oui
21'
44'
David García
44'
Julien De Sart
🔁Frank Magriout: Hassan Aladin
45'
Ferjani Sassi
50'
65'
Diogo Amaro
🔁Ismaël Bennacerout: Amro Surag
69'
70'
Ahmed Al Minhali
🔁Dame Traoreout: Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi
72'
74'
🔁Julien De Sartout: Gabriel Pereira
74'
🔁Ahmed Al-Ganehiout: Abdulaziz Hatim
Saifeldeen Fadlalla
85'
85'
🔁André Amaroout: Aleksandar Mitrović
86'
🔁Ahmed Alaaeldinout: Yousef Ayman
Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins
90+6'
Yacine Brahimi
90+6'
Seydou Sano
90+8'

Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC

42%Possession58%
6Shots15
1On target4
3Corners5
0.32xG1.03

Goals against chances

Al-Gharafa0 from 0.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Rayyan SC0 from 1.03 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  • 18Ayoub Al OuiD
  • 6Dame TraoréD
  • 4S. SanoD
  • 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
  • 13F. SassiM
  • 29F. DíazM
  • 96A. OunasM
  • 10I. BennacerM
  • 8Y. BrahimiM
  • 9F. MagriF
Substitutes
  • 48Fahed Amro Abu HamdehM
  • 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
  • 7F. ComanF
  • 24Hamad KahioutG
  • 16Jamil FriarkhM
  • 90A. HassanF
  • 31A. KoneG
  • 97A. Nasar MohamedF
  • 5Mostafa EssamD
Coach: Pedro Martins
Al-Rayyan SC 4-1-4-1
  • 57Mahmud AbunadaG
  • 31D. AmaroD
  • 13André AmaroD
  • 5David GarcíaD
  • 12Ahmed Al MinhaliD
  • 4J. De SartM
  • 22Ahmed Al GanehiM
  • 40GregoreM
  • 25OtávioM
  • 10Róger GuedesM
  • 30Ahmed Alaa EldinF
Substitutes
  • 35Sami MazenG
  • 23S. BeldiG
  • 21Ibrahim Mohammed Al-HassanM
  • 3Hazem ShehataD
  • 33D. DiakiteD
  • 17Youssef AymanD
  • 9A. MitrovićF
  • 6Abdulaziz HatemM
  • 19Ahmed Al RawiF
Coach: Vicente Moreno

Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC

Al-Gharafa

Stars League

  • L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026

Al-Rayyan SC

Stars League

  • W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al-Gharafa92341115-49
1Al-Rayyan SC9630206+1421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC

  • 26 February 2026Al-Gharafa 3–2 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
  • 25 September 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–3 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 24 May 2025Al-Rayyan SC 1–2 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
  • 29 January 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–2 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 23 August 2024Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League

Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Rayyan SC

Al-Gharafa

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Brahimi51

Al-Rayyan SC

GoalsAssists

  • Róger Guedes62
  • Ahmed Alaa Eldin50
  • Gabriel Pereira33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Gharafa and Al-Rayyan SC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Rayyan SC at 60% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. Sent off: Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins (Al-Gharafa) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 0.32–1.03.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Gharafa a 48.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.0% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 55.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.1%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

For Al-Rayyan SC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 56.7% going in: 64.1% after a win, 46.4% after a draw, 39.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.4%, 10.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.