18 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC Stars League prediction & result

Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Al Sadd 2-3 Al-Duhail SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Al Sadd, 23% draw, 37% Al-Duhail SC — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Sadd at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Sadd6%Draw89%Al-Duhail SC5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Jean-Charles Castellettoassist: Bassam Al-Rawi
28'
⚽Sultan Al-Brakeassist: Krzysztof Piątek
⚽Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaassist: Roberto Firmino
32'
⚽Yusuf Abdurisagassist: Roberto Firmino
45+4'
Roberto Firmino
46'
51'
🔁Almoez Aliout: Tahsin Jamshid
Pedro Miguel
54'
60'
🔁Assim Madiboout: Mubarak Shanan Hamza
🔁Yusuf Abdurisagout: Hashim Ali
63'
🔁Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaout: Agustin soria
63'
🔁Mohamed Camaraout: Mohamed Manai
63'
73'
Bassam Al-Rawi
75'
•Jean-Charles Castelletto
🔁Pedro Miguelout: Younes El Hannach
80'
82'
🔁Marco Verrattiout: Amidou Doumbouya
87'
Krzysztof Piątek
Boualem Khoukhi
87'
🔁Alessio Romagnoliout: Tarek Salman
89'
90+4'
⚽Tahsin Jamshid

Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC

51%Possession49%
14Shots22
5On target12
4Corners11
2.24xG2.5

Goals against chances

Al Sadd2 from 2.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Duhail SC3 from 2.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Sadd 4-2-3-1
  • 22Meshaal BarshamG
  • 2Pedro MiguelD
  • 16Boualem KhoukhiD
  • 26A. RomagnoliD
  • 6Paulo OtávioD
  • 4M. CamaraM
  • 33ClaudinhoM
  • 12Y. AbdurisagM
  • 9Roberto FirminoM
  • 30Akram AfifM
  • 11GiovaniF
Substitutes
  • 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
  • 10Hassan Al HaydosF
  • 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
  • 1Saad Al SheebG
  • 23Hashim AliF
  • 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
  • 3Y. El HannachD
  • 64Moaz ElwadiaD
  • 7Mohammed WaadM
Coach: R. Lucescu
Al-Duhail SC 4-4-2
  • 1Salah ZakariaG
  • 21J. CastellettoD
  • 3Lucas TutaD
  • 5Bassam Al RawiD
  • 18Sultan Al BraikD
  • 19Almoez AliM
  • 23Assim MadiboM
  • 24B. SoumaréM
  • 7S. YansanéM
  • 9K. PiątekF
  • 6M. VerrattiF
Substitutes
  • 94Awad Ashraf Awad OsmanG
  • 26Fahad BakerG
  • 97A. BelmadiF
  • 30A. DoumbouyaD
  • 27Abdalla Mugib GamerD
  • 76Y. A. El AjamiF
  • 11Tahsin JamshidF
  • 8Mubarak Shanan HamzaF
  • 36Adam Riyad FraikhM
Coach: D. Belmadi

Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC

Al Sadd

Stars League

  • L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026

Al-Duhail SC

Stars League

  • W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al Sadd96033418+1618
2Al-Duhail SC9630208+1221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC

  • 5 May 2026Al-Duhail SC 1–4 Al SaddEmir Cup
  • 26 February 2026Al-Duhail SC 1–3 Al SaddStars League
  • 25 September 2025Al Sadd 0–0 Al-Duhail SCStars League
  • 10 May 2025Al Sadd 2–2 Al-Duhail SCQatar Cup
  • 22 February 2025Al Sadd 2–0 Al-Duhail SCStars League
  • 21 September 2024Al-Duhail SC 5–1 Al SaddStars League

Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Duhail SC

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif86
  • Roberto Firmino84
  • Giovani33

Al-Duhail SC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Piątek33
  • Almoez Ali30
  • B. Soumaré30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Duhail SC won 3–2 at Al Sadd. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Sadd at 40% and given a win for Al-Duhail SC 37%. The goals: Jean-Charles Castelletto 9' for Al-Duhail SC, Sultan Al-Brake 28' for Al-Duhail SC, Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva 32' for Al Sadd, Yusuf Abdurisag 45+4' for Al Sadd, Tahsin Jamshid 90+4' for Al-Duhail SC. On expected goals it finished 2.24–2.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Sadd a 30.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 43.1% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 18.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.2%, 12.7 points lower than before the match.

For Al-Duhail SC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 72.3% going in: 86.6% after a win, 72.6% after a draw, 60.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.6%, 14.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Sadd v Al-Duhail SC has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 23% / 37%: the biggest move is Al-Duhail SC's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al Sadd win40%▼ −5
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Al-Duhail SC win37%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.