11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Čelik vs FK Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result

Bilino Polje, Zenica
Referee: A. Kukic
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Čelik 0-0 FK Sarajevo.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Čelik, 28% draw, 37% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Sarajevo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Čelik4%Draw92%FK Sarajevo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

H. Sabanovic
17'
🔁N. Smajlovicout: M. Popovic
46'
58'
I. Saric
60'
S. Pidro
A. Masic
64'
67'
🔁F. Kyeremehout: A. Galesic
🔁A. Mohedanoout: J. Amoah
71'
71'
A. Beganovic
🔁A. Masicout: D. Vidic
78'
🔁A. Hrvanovicout: S. Faraj
84'
🔁O. Sarkicout: B. Jenjic
84'
90+2'
🔁A. Eleziout: G. Cimirot
90+2'
🔁I. Saricout: F. Kosi
90+2'
🔁R. Caraballoout: B. Barisic

Line-ups

Čelik
  • 1A. Sutkovic
  • 4K. Horic
  • 7D. Sijamija
  • 8A. Mohedano
  • 14A. Hrvanovic
  • 17A. Omic
  • 18O. Sarkic
  • 19N. Smajlovic
  • 24H. Sabanovic
  • 88F. Gogic
  • 99A. Masic
Substitutes
  • 23A. Durmo
  • 2A. Hodzic
  • 5H. Vardo
  • 6A. Masetic
  • 9D. Vidic
  • 11S. Faraj
  • 15M. Popovic
  • 20B. Jenjic
  • 21E. Sivac
Coach: Bojan Regoje
FK Sarajevo
  • 31I. Banic
  • 6J. Ivanisevic
  • 7I. Saric
  • 9L. Mikic
  • 11F. Kyeremeh
  • 19R. Caraballo
  • 20A. Elezi
  • 22A. Beganovic
  • 30L. Dajcer
  • 35S. Ignatkov
  • 70S. Pidro
Substitutes
  • 13S. Musija
  • 2S. Maroodza
  • 5R. Telalovic
  • 8A. Galesic
  • 14V. Leto
  • 17F. Kosi
  • 18M. Glogovac
  • 24F. Zivkovic
  • 59G. Cimirot
Coach: Zoran Zekic

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Čelik132561420-611
3FK Sarajevo13553107+320

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo

  • 11 February 2026Čelik 0–1 FK SarajevoCup
  • 19 October 2022Čelik 1–1 FK SarajevoCup
  • 18 October 2019FK Sarajevo 2–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 28 July 2019Čelik 0–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
  • 3 May 2019FK Sarajevo 5–0 ČelikPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Čelik and FK Sarajevo

Čelik

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hrvanović22
  • Anes Mašić11

FK Sarajevo

GoalsAssists

  • R. Caraballo20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Čelik and FK Sarajevo drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Sarajevo at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Čelik a 34.4% chance to finish in the top four: 41.2% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 28.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 31.7%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For FK Sarajevo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 81.4% going in: 86.7% after a win, 82.0% after a draw, 77.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.