Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 21% draw, 47% FC Lugano — fair odds of 3.13, 4.76 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
FC Lugano
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | Super League | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · Super League
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
- 20 August 2026FC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz4 goals1 assists
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assists
- O. Davida2 goals
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.