27 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Qarabag vs Twente UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Qarabag 1-4 Twente.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Qarabag, 26% draw, 53% Twente — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoff round tie. First leg: Twente 0–1 Qarabag (20 Aug) →

Twente went through 4–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Twente at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qarabag3%Draw93%Twente4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Ramiz Zerrouki
Bruno Langa
23'
Samuel Lobato
58'
⚽Kady Borgesassist: M. Qurbanly
59'
🔁M. Qurbanlyout: C. Makreckis
70'
🔁S. Lobatoout: Pedro Bicalho
70'
70'
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: M. Pjaca
70'
🔁R. Propperout: L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
🔁B. Langaout: Dani Bolt
76'
79'
⚽M. Pjacaassist: W. Weghorst
🔁Kady Borgesout: J. Montiel
86'
Bence Várkonyi
90+4'
Marko Janković
90'
90+5'
🔁R. Nijstadout: A. Adelgaard
90'
⚽M. Brunsassist: M. Pjaca
91'
🔁D. Rotsout: T. van den Belt
Jaly Mouaddib
92'
94'
⚽W. Weghorstassist: D. Weidmann
97'
🔁D. Weidmannout: M. Kjolo
Marko Janković
106'
Marko Janković
106'
106'
Wout Weghorst
109'
🔁W. Weghorstout: F. Thorvaldsen
🔁B. Huseynovout: B. Mustafazada
114'
🔁J. Mouaddibout: H. Cabrayilzada
114'
114'
⚽Y. Taha
116'
Younes Taha

Match stats — Qarabag vs Twente

39%Possession61%
9Shots29
1On target10
0Corners9

Line-ups

Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 88S. LobatoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
Substitutes
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 18Dani BoltD
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaD
  • 49A. BashirovM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 38M. BrunsD
  • 3R. PropperD
  • 43R. NijstadD
  • 42D. WeidmannM
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 19Y. TahaM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 27S. OrjasaeterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 12G. PeixotoD
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 39J. MeilinkD
  • 26B. NagelM
  • 4M. KjoloM
  • 20T. van den BeltM
Coach: John van den Brom

Form going into Qarabag vs Twente

Qarabag

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Twente20 August 2026
  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Twente

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Qarabag20 August 2026
  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
  • W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
  • Qarabag kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Twente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Qarabag and Twente in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
4QarabagPremyer Liqa10541148+619
3TwenteUEFA Europa Conference League330082+69

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premyer Liqa · UEFA Europa Conference League

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Twente

  • 20 August 2026Twente 0–1 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Qarabag and Twente

Qarabag

No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Twente

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pjaca41
  • D. Weidmann35

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Twente won 4–1 at Qarabag. The model had made a win for Twente its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kady Borges 59' for Qarabag, M. Pjaca 79' for Twente, M. Bruns 90' for Twente, W. Weghorst 94' for Twente, Y. Taha 114' for Twente. Sent off: Marko Janković (Qarabag) 106'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.