31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Plymouth vs Reading League One prediction & result

Home Park, Plymouth
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Plymouth 0-0 Reading.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Plymouth, 25% draw, 35% Reading — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Plymouth5%Draw91%Reading4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Will Evans
25'
63'
🔁Randell Williamsout: Daniel·Kyerewaa
63'
🔁Jamie Reidout: Jack Marriott
🔁Xavier Amaechiout: Oliver Irow
80'
🔁Tyreeq Bakinsonout: Malachi Boateng
80'
🔁Julio Pleguezueloout: Mathias Ross Jensen
83'
85'
🔁Josh Stokesout: Jacob Brown
85'
🔁Josh Knightout: Haydon Roberts
90+1'
Jeriel Dorsett
90+1'
Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
90+4'
Andy Rinomhota

Match stats — Plymouth vs Reading

44%Possession56%
13Shots14
4On target4
3Corners7
0.87xG1.15

Goals against chances

Plymouth0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Reading0 from 1.15 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Plymouth 3-4-3
  • 21James StorerG
  • 5Julio PleguezueloD
  • 15A. MitchellD
  • 45W. HardingD
  • 8J. EdwardsM
  • 7H. WhiteM
  • 19T. BakinsonM
  • 3Jack MackenzieM
  • 10X. AmaechiF
  • 27A. PeppleF
  • 9W. EvansF
Substitutes
  • 6M. BoatengM
  • 11R. CurtisF
  • 22A. HartridgeD
  • 23B. IbrahimM
  • 14O. IrowF
  • 2M. RossD
  • 42Jared RendleF
Coach: Tom Cleverley
Reading 4-2-3-1
  • 1Joel PereiraG
  • 2U. Godwin-MalifeD
  • 20J. KnightD
  • 15P. O'ConnorD
  • 3J. DorsettD
  • 10L. WingM
  • 4A. RinomhotaM
  • 19Kyreece LisbieM
  • 28J. StokesM
  • 14R. WilliamsM
  • 9J. ReidF
Substitutes
  • 25J. StevensG
  • 8C. SavageM
  • 5H. RobertsD
  • 7J. MarriottF
  • 11D. KyerewaaM
  • 6L. FraserM
  • 18J. BrownF
Coach: L. Richardson

Form going into Plymouth vs Reading

Plymouth

League One

  • W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
  • L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026

Reading

League One

  • W2-1Barnsley24 October 2026
  • W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Plymouth157262122-123
7Reading156452618+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Reading

  • 14 March 2026Reading 2–2 PlymouthLeague One
  • 26 December 2025Plymouth 1–4 ReadingLeague One
  • 27 August 2019Plymouth 2–4 ReadingLeague Cup
  • 9 August 2016Reading 2–0 PlymouthLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Plymouth and Reading

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Reading

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marriott90
  • Kyreece Lisbie55

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Plymouth and Reading drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Plymouth at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Plymouth a 11.6% chance to finish in the top two: 13.9% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.5%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

For Reading the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 17.7% going in: 21.3% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.8%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Plymouth v Reading has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 25% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Plymouth's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Plymouth win40%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Reading win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.