21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Marseille vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result

Marseille
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% Marseille, 11% draw, 9% Strasbourg — fair odds of 1.25, 9.09 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Marseille at 80% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Marseille99%Draw1%Strasbourg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Gouiriassist: A. Gomes
46'
48'
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
58'
•Samir El Mourabet
59'
Samir El Mourabet
61'
Sékou Mara
•Igor Paixão
65'
⚽A. Gouiri (pen)
68'
69'
🔁S. Amo-Ameyawout: G. Reyna
69'
🔁D. Sousaout: P. Demba
69'
🔁S. Maraout: J. Ortega
🔁C. Egan-Rileyout: N. Aguerd
75'
Nayef Aguerd
79'
79'
🔁G. Antwiout: M. Del Blanco
79'
🔁S. Nanasiout: F. Balde
🔁G. Kondogbiaout: D. Cornelius
83'
🔁H. Abdelliout: T. Nnadi
83'
🔁A. Haritout: K. Abdallah
83'
⚽K. Abdallah
89'
🔁A. Gomesout: N. Maupay
90+1'
⚽P. Hojbjerg
90'

Match stats — Marseille vs Strasbourg

67%Possession33%
14Shots5
8On target2
3Corners4
1.89xG0.2

Goals against chances

Marseille4 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Strasbourg0 from 0.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. De LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 19G. KondogbiaD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 23P. HojbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 14I. PaixaoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 74K. BezahafD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 6T. NnadiM
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 11N. MaupayF
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. JorgensenG
  • 22G. DoueD
  • 2A. OmobamideleD
  • 24L. HogsbergD
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 23D. SousaM
  • 29S. El MourabetM
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawM
  • 11S. NanasiM
  • 80G. YassineM
  • 14S. MaraF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 21P. DembaM
  • 17M. AmougouM
  • 15M. Del BlancoD
  • 19F. BaldeF
  • 37G. KodiaF
  • 30J. OrtegaF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Marseille41036603
6Strasbourg421198+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Marseille vs Strasbourg

  • 21 August 2026Marseille 4–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 14 February 2026Marseille 2–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 26 September 2025Strasbourg 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 19 January 2025Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 29 September 2024Strasbourg 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 12 January 2024Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1

Leading scorers: Marseille and Strasbourg

Marseille

  • A. Gouiri4 goals

Strasbourg

  • Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assists
  • S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
  • J. Ortega1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.