21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Sochaux vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Auguste Bonal
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sochaux, 31% draw, 22% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sochaux at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sochaux98%Draw2%Guingamp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Fofanaassist: S. Agouzoul
14'
19'
Adrián Ortolá
⚽Samy Baghdadi (pen)
20'
46'
🔁E. Koffiout: V. Muntu Wa Mungu
Élie N'Gatta
47'
55'
Donatien Gomis
59'
🔁T. Ducrocqout: T. Ahile
59'
🔁T. Averlantout: S. Ben Brahim
66'
Dylan Louiserre
🔁B. Fofanaout: D. Tavares
68'
🔁S. Baghdadiout: B. Diawara
68'
71'
🔁D. Louiserreout: J. Chamakh
71'
🔁F. Sanchez Da Silvaout: A. Samoura
72'
Albin Demouchy
🔁M. Clairiciaout: K. Djoco
76'
🔁S. Agouzoulout: N. K. Mouyema
78'
90+3'
Jasser Chamakh

Match stats — Sochaux vs Guingamp

33%Possession67%
8Shots18
3On target6
2Corners8

Line-ups

Sochaux 4-2-3-1
  • 40M. JeanninG
  • 26E. N'GattaD
  • 14M. PeybernesD
  • 97S. AgouzoulD
  • 3D. Gomis
  • 15J. MexiqueM
  • 23J. MassonM
  • 77L. NomelM
  • 5S. BaghdadiM
  • 10B. FofanaM
  • 91M. ClairiciaF
Substitutes
  • 16M. Schubler-Lecart
  • 30A. PierreG
  • 42D. TavaresD
  • 25P. DiopM
  • 21B. DiawaraF
  • 2M. Toure
  • 92P. MonthieuF
  • 9K. DjocoF
  • 33N. K. Mouyema
Coach: Vincent Hognon
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16A. OrtolaG
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 8F. Sanchez Da SilvaM
  • 10A. HemiaF
  • 18S. KieltF
Substitutes
  • 1T. Bartouche-SelbonneG
  • 39V. Muntu Wa Mungu
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 38E. AucanM
  • 32I. DiakiteM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 17A. SamouraF
Coach: Sylvain Ripoll

Form going into Sochaux vs Guingamp

Sochaux

  • D0-0away to RED Star FC 9314 August 2026

Guingamp

  • W1-0Boulogne14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Sochaux623134-19
9Guingamp62229908

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sochaux vs Guingamp

  • 14 January 2025Guingamp 2–2 SochauxCoupe de France
  • 13 May 2023Sochaux 0–1 GuingampLigue 2
  • 30 August 2022Guingamp 1–2 SochauxLigue 2
  • 5 March 2022Sochaux 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 21 September 2021Guingamp 1–2 SochauxLigue 2
  • 27 February 2021Sochaux 0–0 GuingampLigue 2

Leading scorers: Sochaux and Guingamp

Sochaux

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Guingamp

  • D. Gomis2 goals1 assists
  • S. Kielt2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.