22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Le Mans, 28% draw, 28% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Le Mans at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Mans4%Draw93%Stade Brestois 293%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽R. Del Castilloassist: K. Doumbia
43'
Ludovic Ajorque
⚽D. Gueyeassist: L. Mafouta
45'
Alexandre Lauray
51'
⚽L. Mafoutaassist: A. Bourabaa
55'
62'
⚽K. Doumbia
🔁A. Laurayout: L. Bretelle
63'
🔁L. Mafoutaout: E. Colas
63'
63'
🔁J. Nongeout: M. Diambou
71'
🔁P. Mboupout: A. Camblan
71'
🔁R. Del Castilloout: M. Balde
🔁D. Gueyeout: W. Harhouz
72'
🔁A. Bourabaaout: B. Brahimi
72'
🔁Y. Larouciout: L. Calodat
81'
89'
🔁K. Doumbiaout: L. C. Laine M.

Match stats — Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29

51%Possession49%
8Shots13
5On target5
0Corners4
0.69xG1.65

Goals against chances

Le Mans2 from 0.69 xGmore than the chances were worth
Stade Brestois 292 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Le Mans 3-5-2
  • 98N. KocikG
  • 15N. BoisseD
  • 21T. EyoumD
  • 26R. BambaD
  • 18L. BuadesM
  • 11A. BourabaaM
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 9A. RabillardM
  • 76Y. LarouciM
  • 25D. GueyeF
  • 14L. MafoutaF
Substitutes
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 16R. TorrenteD
  • 19D. SidibeD
  • 22L. CalodatD
  • 24M. RobinM
  • 29L. Bretelle
  • 20W. HarhouzF
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 28E. ColasF
Coach: Patrick Videira
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 29L. TousartD
  • 71R. Le GuenD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 7J. NongeM
  • 10R. Del CastilloM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 9P. MboupM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 49R. CagnonG
  • 34E. Mailly
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 20L. ZogbeD
  • 33H. MakalouM
  • 6M. DiambouM
  • 11A. CamblanM
  • 17M. BaldeF
  • 32L. C. Laine M.M
Coach: Julien Lachuer

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Le Mans403178-13
7Stade Brestois 2941216605

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29

  • 22 August 2026Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

Leading scorers: Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29

Le Mans

  • L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
  • A. Bourabaa2 goals2 assists
  • L. Calodat1 goals1 assists

Stade Brestois 29

  • K. Doumbia4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.