21 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Wieczysta Kraków.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Cracovia Krakow, 21% draw, 15% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cracovia Krakow at 64% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow6%Draw92%Wieczysta Kraków2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽M. Wieteska
28'
Mateusz Wieteska
⚽M. Perkovicassist: M. Klich
45'
53'
⚽L. Semedo (pen)
🔁D. Kameriout: O. Kakabadze
61'
🔁K. Zahiroleslamout: M. Berte
61'
66'
🔁P. Pusicout: B. Lederman
66'
🔁T. Mrasout: Miki Villar
🔁M. Minchevout: S. Ltaief
69'
🔁M. Klichout: M. Praszelik
70'
⚽A. Hasicassist: D. Pila
78'
85'
🔁L. Semedoout: C. Lungoyi
85'
🔁T. Christensenout: B. Bialek
88'
🔁K. Dankowskiout: K. Fila
🔁D. Pilaout: K. Glik
90+3'
⚽A. Hasicassist: O. Kakabadze
90'

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków

45%Possession55%
24Shots12
6On target4
9Corners8
2.08xG1.98

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow3 from 2.08 xGmore than the chances were worth
Wieczysta Kraków2 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-5-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 79D. PilaD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoreD
  • 39M. PerkovicD
  • 14A. HasicM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 6A. Al AmmariM
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 18K. ZahiroleslamF
Substitutes
  • 23H. RavasG
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 22D. BaumgartnerD
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 7M. PraszelikM
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 29W. DejM
  • 5B. Selan
Coach: Bartosz Grzelak
Wieczysta Kraków 4-3-3
  • 1A. MikulkoG
  • 17K. DankowskiD
  • 24M. WieteskaD
  • 16A. MilicD
  • 27M. VojtkoD
  • 70P. PusicM
  • 20M. MaigaardM
  • 12L. PiazonM
  • 7L. SemedoF
  • 10T. ChristensenF
  • 97T. MrasF
Substitutes
  • 26N. CavlinaG
  • 4K. FilaD
  • 55D. DujmovicD
  • 15A. DjermanovicD
  • 13K. ZagrodzkiD
  • 8B. LedermanM
  • 11N. KnezevicM
  • 88C. LungoyiF
  • 23Miki VillarM
Coach: Kazimierz Moskal

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków

Cracovia Krakow

  • W2-1Raków Częstochowa16 August 2026

Wieczysta Kraków

  • W4-3away to Piast Gliwice15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Cracovia Krakow8224711-48
17Wieczysta Kraków7115915-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków

  • 21 August 2026Cracovia Krakow 3–2 Wieczysta KrakówEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków

Cracovia Krakow

  • A. Hasić3 goals1 assists

Wieczysta Kraków

  • T. Christensen3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.