22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Toulouse vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Toulouse, 24% draw, 41% Lyon — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lyon at 41% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toulouse0%Draw1%Lyon99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Niklas Schmidt
31'
45'
Noah Nartey
63'
🔁R. Himbertout: P. Sulc
63'
🔁J. Duranvilleout: M. Fofana
68'
⚽N. Narteyassist: P. Sulc
69'
🔁M. de Carvalhoout: C. Tolisso
69'
🔁N. Narteyout: T. Morton
🔁I. Dialloout: R. Messali
71'
🔁J. Vignoloout: I. Azizi
71'
🔁S. Hidalgoout: J. Russell-Rowe
71'
🔁Y. Gbohoout: S. Oppong
80'
80'
🔁M. Bidstrupout: T. Tessmann
85'
⚽M. Fofanaassist: C. Tolisso
🔁N. Schmidtout: M. Saka
86'

Match stats — Toulouse vs Lyon

47%Possession53%
17Shots6
2On target1
6Corners4
2.63xG0.16

Goals against chances

Toulouse0 from 2.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Lyon2 from 0.16 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapeD
  • 23C. CasseresM
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 7J. VignoloM
  • 8T. JorgensenM
  • 10Y. GbohoM
  • 9S. HidalgoF
Substitutes
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 19D. OdoguD
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 77M. SauerM
  • 22R. MessaliM
  • 28M. SakaM
  • 37I. AziziF
  • 11S. OppongF
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Coach: Jens Askou
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 22C. MataD
  • 76M. OuedraogoD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
Substitutes
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 10P. SulcM
  • 11M. FofanaF
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 17L. OpendaF
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Toulouse vs Lyon

Toulouse

No earlier matches on record this season.

Lyon

  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe18 August 2026
  • W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Toulouse402247-32
4Lyon422062+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Lyon

  • 22 August 2026Toulouse 0–2 LyonLigue 1
  • 10 May 2026Toulouse 2–1 LyonLigue 1
  • 5 October 2025Lyon 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 18 January 2025Lyon 0–0 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 29 September 2024Toulouse 1–2 LyonLigue 1
  • 15 March 2024Toulouse 2–3 LyonLigue 1
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.