22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Nice vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result

Allianz Riviera, Nice
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Nice 0-0 Lorient.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Nice, 24% draw, 29% Lorient — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nice at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nice5%Draw91%Lorient4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Zoumana Diallo
37'
🔁Z. Dialloout: M. Cho
60'
69'
🔁G. Bernardeauout: S. Faye
70'
🔁M. Koneout: A. Tosin
72'
🔁D. Syllaout: A. Georgen
72'
🔁T. Le Brisout: P. Katseris
🔁J. Claussout: H. Koutoune
81'
🔁S. Diopout: N. Ngoumou
81'
🔁X. Mandza Tsiendiout: M. Abdelmonem
88'

Match stats — Nice vs Lorient

64%Possession36%
11Shots7
1On target2
7Corners2
0.92xG0.87

Goals against chances

Nice0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Lorient0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 33A. MendyD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 87E. PereiraM
  • 26M. BardM
  • 7G. HeinF
  • 10S. DiopF
  • 44Z. DialloF
Substitutes
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 5M. AbdelmonemD
  • 36B. MantsoungaD
  • 84H. KoutouneD
  • 29N. NgoumouF
  • 22I. CamaraM
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 25M. ChoF
Coach: Olivier Pantaloni
Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 20D. SyllaD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 43A. KouassiM
  • 33G. BernardeauF
  • 17J. MakengoF
  • 42M. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 95I. ToureD
  • 77P. KatserisD
  • 23D. SemedoM
  • 7B. FadigaM
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 15A. TosinF
Coach: Alexandre Dujeux

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Nice402215-42
9Lorient41214405

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nice vs Lorient

  • 22 August 2026Nice 0–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 4 March 2026Lorient 0–0 NiceCoupe de France
  • 22 February 2026Nice 3–3 LorientLigue 1
  • 30 November 2025Lorient 3–1 NiceLigue 1
  • 19 April 2024Nice 3–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 20 August 2023Lorient 1–1 NiceLigue 1
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.