8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Metz vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Metz 2-1 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Metz, 30% draw, 26% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Metz at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Metz97%Draw3%Guingamp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jessy Deminguet
19'
⚽Pape Moussa Fall (pen)
30'
51'
⚽A. Demouchyassist: A. Hemia
54'
Albin Demouchy
57'
🔁F. Sanchez Da Silvaout: T. Ducrocq
⚽P. M. Fallassist: M. Colin
58'
⚽G. Abuashviliassist: J. Deminguet
60'
🔁B. Munongoout: H. Kadamani
65'
66'
🔁A. Hemiaout: J. Chamakh
66'
🔁T. Ahileout: S. Ben Brahim
66'
🔁J. Diangangaout: D. Gomis
74'
🔁J. Matumonaout: V. Muntu Wa Mungu
🔁N. Mbalaout: N. Mendy
79'
🔁P. M. Fallout: H. Diallo
79'
🔁G. Abuashviliout: M. Bokele Mputu
82'
Idris Mohamed
90+2'

Match stats — Metz vs Guingamp

41%Possession59%
15Shots12
7On target7
5Corners3

Line-ups

Metz 5-3-2
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 22N. MbalaD
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 98I. MohamedM
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 8J. DeminguetF
  • 11P. M. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 6N. MendyM
  • 20H. DialloF
  • 7I. SaneF
  • 19M. Bokele MputuF
  • 32A. MarchalD
  • 21J. PandoreF
  • 25C. MelieresD
  • 38H. KadamaniM
Coach: Luc Holtz
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16A. OrtolaG
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 8F. Sanchez Da SilvaM
  • 10A. HemiaF
  • 18S. KieltF
Substitutes
  • 1T. Bartouche-SelbonneG
  • 39V. Muntu Wa Mungu
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 38E. AucanM
  • 32I. DiakiteM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 31J. MatondoM
Coach: Sylvain Ripoll

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Metz623185+39
9Guingamp62229908

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Metz vs Guingamp

  • 15 February 2025Guingamp 0–3 MetzLigue 2
  • 25 October 2024Metz 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 20 May 2023Guingamp 1–1 MetzLigue 2
  • 12 September 2022Metz 3–6 GuingampLigue 2
  • 24 February 2018Guingamp 2–2 MetzLigue 1
  • 5 August 2017Metz 1–3 GuingampLigue 1

Leading scorers: Metz and Guingamp

Metz

  • P. Fall5 goals

Guingamp

  • D. Gomis2 goals1 assists
  • S. Kielt2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.