8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Montpellier vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Montpellier 1-1 Dijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Montpellier, 14% draw, 8% Dijon — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montpellier at 78% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier8%Draw90%Dijon2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nordan Mukiele
27'
43'
Brandon Ndezi
Daylam Meddah
63'
🔁N. Mukieleout: Y. Issoufou
64'
🔁N. El Hannachout: G. Ayem
64'
Théo Chennahi
65'
66'
🔁P. Bellonout: A. Lembezat
66'
🔁Y. Barkaout: T. Dong
72'
🔁B. Ndeziout: S. Chouchane
73'
🔁M. Barretoout: Y. Aka
76'
Adel Lembezat
🔁D. Meddahout: H. Abderrebi
80'
82'
🔁A. Ntamackout: J. Tavares
🔁M. Camaraout: L. Megnan-Pave
85'
89'
Lenny Lacroix
⚽Y. Mouangaassist: T. Sainte-Luce
90'
90'
⚽A. Lembezat

Match stats — Montpellier vs Dijon

55%Possession45%
22Shots10
5On target4
4Corners0

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-3-3
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3N. El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 18N. PaysF
  • 11M. CamaraF
  • 19N. MukieleF
Substitutes
  • 50V. DzodicG
  • 7Y. IssoufouF
  • 90G. AyemM
  • 23D. BenlahlouF
  • 35M. ChambonD
  • 9L. Megnan-PaveF
  • 32H. AbderrebiM
Coach: Zoumana Camara
Dijon 4-4-2
  • 1I. Marie-RoseG
  • 7B. HamadaD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 14J. MarieM
  • 4M. BarretoM
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 10Y. BarkaF
Substitutes
  • 20H. Vargas-RiosM
  • 93I. BouleghchaD
  • 21S. ChouchaneM
  • 42Y. AkaD
  • 11J. TavaresF
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 9T. DongF
Coach: Baptiste Ridira

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier632154+111
13Dijon613289-16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Dijon

  • 7 February 2021Montpellier 4–2 DijonLigue 1
  • 27 September 2020Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 25 January 2020Montpellier 2–1 DijonLigue 1
  • 4 December 2019Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 13 January 2019Dijon 1–1 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 11 August 2018Montpellier 1–2 DijonLigue 1

Leading scorers: Montpellier and Dijon

Montpellier

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Dijon

  • Samy Olivier Chouchane3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.