Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Argentinos Juniors, 30% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25B. CortesG
- 22K. CoronelD
- 16F. AlvarezD
- 6F. VazquezD
- 20S. PrietoD
- 10G. FlorentinM
- 15K. GutierrezM
- 11N. OrozM
- 8H. LopezM
- 27T. MolinaF
- 9G. VeronF
- 12G. Siri PayerG
- 26C. BravoD
- 17F. ParedesD
- 4E. GodoyD
- 30A. NunezD
- 5F. CarrizoD
- 32G. InfantinoM
- 35A. AlcarazF
- 19M. GimenezF
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13German ContiD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 5I. MiramonM
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 17L. JansonM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 27J. KadijevicG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 16A. MaxM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 20J. PerezM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 33P. AguiarM
- 32M. TorresF
Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinos Juniors
- D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026
- L0-2away to River Plate16 August 2026
- W2-1Racing Club9 August 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
- W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 13 September 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 May 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 September 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 March 2024Argentinos Juniors 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 19 October 2023Gimnasia La Plata 3–2 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 April 2023Argentinos Juniors 2–4 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinos Juniors
No leading scorers listed yet.
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.