13 September 2026, 20:00 UTC

Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Buenos Aires
Full time1 1

Final score: Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Argentinos Juniors, 30% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Argentinos Juniors at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Argentinos Juniors3%Draw93%Gimnasia La Plata4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
A. Auzmendiassist: N. Fernandez
35'
Bautista Barros Schelotto
Sebastián Prieto
40'
Sebastián Prieto
41'
Nicolas Oroz
46'
🔁K. Coronelout: C. Bravo
46'
🔁G. Florentinout: E. Viveros
46'
57'
🔁L. Jansonout: A. Steimbach
64'
🔁M. Zalazarout: F. Torres
G. Veronassist: T. Molina
74'
79'
Nacho Fernández
🔁N. Orozout: F. Carrizo
79'
84'
Ignacio Miramón
84'
🔁B. Barros Schelottoout: R. Giampaoli
84'
🔁A. Auzmendiout: M. Torres
84'
🔁M. Seoaneout: A. Colazo
🔁H. Lopezout: M. Gimenez
89'
🔁T. Molinaout: D. Porcel
89'
90+2'
Alexis Steimbach

Match stats — Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata

64%Possession36%
14Shots8
2On target2
6Corners3
0.68xG1.55

Goals against chances

Argentinos Juniors1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gimnasia La Plata1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2
  • 25B. CortesG
  • 22K. CoronelD
  • 16F. AlvarezD
  • 6F. VazquezD
  • 20S. PrietoD
  • 10G. FlorentinM
  • 15K. GutierrezM
  • 11N. OrozM
  • 8H. LopezM
  • 27T. MolinaF
  • 9G. VeronF
Substitutes
  • 12G. Siri PayerG
  • 26C. BravoD
  • 17F. ParedesD
  • 4E. GodoyD
  • 30A. NunezD
  • 5F. CarrizoD
  • 32G. InfantinoM
  • 35A. AlcarazF
  • 19M. GimenezF
Coach: Nicolas Diez
Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 23N. InsfranG
  • 31B. Barros SchelottoD
  • 13German ContiD
  • 21E. MartinezD
  • 24P. Silva TorrejonD
  • 5I. MiramonM
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 9M. ZalazarM
  • 8N. FernandezM
  • 17L. JansonM
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
Substitutes
  • 27J. KadijevicG
  • 22M. MellusoD
  • 4R. GiampaoliD
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 20J. PerezM
  • 25A. SteimbachM
  • 33P. AguiarM
  • 32M. TorresF
Coach: Mariano Messera

Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata

Argentinos Juniors

  • D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
  • W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026
  • L0-2away to River Plate16 August 2026
  • W2-1Racing Club9 August 2026

Gimnasia La Plata

  • W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
  • L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
  • W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata

  • 13 September 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 May 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 September 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 March 2024Argentinos Juniors 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 19 October 2023Gimnasia La Plata 3–2 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 April 2023Argentinos Juniors 2–4 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Gimnasia La Plata

Argentinos Juniors

No leading scorers listed yet.

Gimnasia La Plata

  • M. Torres8 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.