Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Mlada Boleslav, 29% draw, 28% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mlada Boleslav at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 32Filip MatoušekD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 13Denis DonátD
- 18Marek HavranM
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 47Marek ObdržálekG
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 5Harustak JanD
- 77David PechM
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 26Filip VedralD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 44Amadou DanteD
- 68Jakub JanetzkýM
- 8Patrik ČavošM
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekM
- 7Štěpán LangerM
- 10Antonin VanicekM
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 23Petr ŠevčíkM
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 79Soliu AfolabiM
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 78Ondrej ProdelalG
- 4Eric HunalD
- 25Tomáš BřečkaD
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
- W3-2Zlin29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mlada Boleslav scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 29 January 2023Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 13 August 2022Zbrojovka Brno 3–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 8 May 2021Zbrojovka Brno 2–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 16 January 2021Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert71
- J. Klíma41
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mlada Boleslav beat Zbrojovka Brno 2–0. The model had made a win for Mlada Boleslav its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Martin Šubert 7' for Mlada Boleslav, Jiří Klíma 50' for Mlada Boleslav. On expected goals it finished 1.03–2.37.
How the call on Mlada Boleslav v Zbrojovka Brno has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Mlada Boleslav's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Mlada Boleslav win43%▲ +4
- Draw29%=
- Zbrojovka Brno win28%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.