Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Dunav Ruse 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dunav Ruse, 26% draw, 33% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dunav Ruse at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 33G. KitanovG
- 4J. C. Cabarcas PerezD
- 5K. AntoniouM
- 22S. PredevD
- 2M. DilchovskiD
- 14R. ApostolovM
- 44V. VidakovicM
- 24S. GavrilovM
- 88D. Todorov
- 18I. KeitaF
- 9A. ValinoF
- 6S. YovkovD
- 11D. MinchevF
- 19S. StefanovM
- 39A. AlvesD
- 51I. BudinovD
- 69P. PepelyashevG
- 77A. SimeonovF
- 78E. Sou
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 3K. KostovD
- 6EiroD
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 77Caue Caruzo
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 5E. DostM
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 17M. PapazovM
- 19M. MitkovD
- 29A. Aralica
- 42N. NeychevD
- 44B. KatsarovD
- 71N. PenevM
- 99M. VelichkovG
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv20 July 2026
What these results say
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunav Ruse at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Apostolov (penalty) 39' for Dunav Ruse, G. Minchev (penalty) 57' for Lokomotiv Sofia, A. Valino 64' for Dunav Ruse, Caue Caruzo 69' for Lokomotiv Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.