Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Dunav Ruse 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dunav Ruse, 26% draw, 33% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table