Motherwell vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 3-0 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Motherwell, 28% draw, 27% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motherwell at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motherwell vs Dundee United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18T. MaswanhiseM
- 11A. LowryM
- 13J. KangaF
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 63D. LevittM
- 19I. SaidF
- 77W. VogtF
- 15E. BjorgolfssonF
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 11W. FerryD
- 8P. CamaraM
- 12E. AgyeiM
- 26A. YoroM
- 7M. MerghemF
- 9Z. SapsfordF
- 77D. BennieF
- 30J. AmissahG
- 4I. IovuD
- 22D. NaamoD
- 19K. CiubotaruD
- 16L. CameronM
- 10D. TaitM
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 21J. RandallF
- 15L. RoseF
Form going into Motherwell vs Dundee United
Motherwell
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
Dundee United
- W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
- L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Dundee United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Dundee United
- 2 September 2026Motherwell 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 28 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 13 December 2025Dundee United 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 October 2025Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 22 February 2025Dundee United 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 14 December 2024Motherwell 4–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Dundee United
Motherwell
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
- A. Lowry1 goals1 assists
Dundee United
- J. Randall1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.