2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Motherwell vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Motherwell 3-0 Dundee United.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Motherwell, 28% draw, 27% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motherwell at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell99%Draw1%Dundee United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Emmanuel Agyei
⚽S. Palmer-Houldenassist: T. Sparrow
19'
20'
🔁A. Yoroout: D. Tait
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
35'
🔁J. Knight-Lebelout: J. Girdwood-Reich
46'
46'
🔁M. Merghemout: J. Randall
57'
🔁D. Bennieout: N. Farrugia
58'
🔁Z. Sapsfordout: L. Rose
🔁L. Fadingerout: D. Levitt
59'
🔁S. Palmer-Houldenout: E. Bjorgolfsson
59'
64'
🔁W. Ferryout: K. Ciubotaru
⚽A. Lowryassist: T. Maswanhise
65'
⚽D. Levittassist: T. Maswanhise
67'
🔁T. Sparrowout: S. O'Donnell
68'
🔁A. Lowryout: W. Vogt
68'

Match stats — Motherwell vs Dundee United

71%Possession29%
25Shots5
8On target1
9Corners3
2.15xG0.19

Goals against chances

Motherwell3 from 2.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dundee United0 from 0.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-2-2
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 4J. Knight-LebelD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45E. LongeloD
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 18T. MaswanhiseM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 13J. KangaF
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Substitutes
  • 21Matty ConnellyG
  • 20D. WilliamsD
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 19I. SaidF
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 15E. BjorgolfssonF
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 11W. FerryD
  • 8P. CamaraM
  • 12E. AgyeiM
  • 26A. YoroM
  • 7M. MerghemF
  • 9Z. SapsfordF
  • 77D. BennieF
Substitutes
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 16L. CameronM
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 15L. RoseF
Coach: Jim Goodwin

Form going into Motherwell vs Dundee United

Motherwell

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg27 August 2026
  • L1-3SC Freiburg20 August 2026
  • W2-0HJK Helsinki13 August 2026
  • D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026

Dundee United

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
  • L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
  • D1-1Rangers31 July 2026

What these results say

  • Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dundee United failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dundee United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Motherwell133461521-613
6Dundee United124531717017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Dundee United

  • 28 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 13 December 2025Dundee United 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 29 October 2025Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 22 February 2025Dundee United 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 14 December 2024Motherwell 4–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Dundee United

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Dundee United

GoalsAssists

  • J. Randall33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motherwell beat Dundee United 3–0. The model had made a win for Motherwell its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Palmer-Houlden 19' for Motherwell, A. Lowry 65' for Motherwell, D. Levitt 67' for Motherwell. Sent off: Emmanuel Agyei (Dundee United) 14'. On expected goals it finished 2.15–0.19.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.