2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result

Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Kilmarnock 0-1 St Mirren.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Kilmarnock, 28% draw, 36% St Mirren — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kilmarnock at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kilmarnock0%Draw4%St Mirren96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽F. Taylorassist: N. Agrafiotis
Greg Kiltie
38'
42'
Nikolas Agrafiotis
🔁J. Yfekoout: J. Brandon
46'
🔁E. Ringout: A. Tshibola
46'
🔁T. John-Julesout: D. Daniels
46'
61'
🔁N. Agrafiotisout: J. Young
🔁M. O'Haraout: R. McKenzie
66'
66'
🔁C. R. Mochrieout: L. Thomas
74'
🔁F. Taylorout: J. Richardson
74'
🔁I. Kabiaout: E. Sule
🔁T. Loweryout: B. Rice
78'
Bailey Rice
82'
82'
Jayden Richardson

Match stats — Kilmarnock vs St Mirren

47%Possession53%
9Shots10
2On target1
7Corners3
0.43xG1.09

Goals against chances

Kilmarnock0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
St Mirren1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2
  • 1M. StryjekG
  • 4C. McCarthyD
  • 14G. StangerD
  • 15J. YfekoD
  • 8E. RingM
  • 5M. O'Hara
  • 18T. LoweryM
  • 21M. Schjonning-LarsenM
  • 11G. KiltieF
  • 10T. John-JulesF
  • 9J. HugillF
Substitutes
  • 12C. FerrieG
  • 19J. MeierD
  • 2J. BrandonD
  • 37C. Burke
  • 36A. TshibolaM
  • 49B. RiceM
  • 7R. McKenzieM
  • 27I. OwenF
  • 29D. DanielsF
Coach: Neil McCann
St Mirren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 47C. RamsayD
  • 13A. GogicD
  • 53H. FieldsonD
  • 3D. JohnD
  • 48P. NsioM
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 23C. R. MochrieM
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 19I. KabiaM
  • 25N. AgrafiotisF
Substitutes
  • 31R. MullenG
  • 2J. RichardsonD
  • 5R. KingD
  • 6L. JacksonD
  • 10S. RamosM
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 20J. YoungF
  • 9E. SuleF
  • 16L. ThomasM
Coach: Craig McLeish

Form going into Kilmarnock vs St Mirren

Kilmarnock

  • L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
  • L1-5Celtic9 August 2026

St Mirren

  • D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
  • W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Kilmarnock6114514-94
4St Mirren631286+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs St Mirren

  • 2 September 2026Kilmarnock 0–1 St MirrenPremiership
  • 9 May 2026St Mirren 0–3 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 11 February 2026Kilmarnock 4–3 St MirrenPremiership
  • 27 December 2025St Mirren 0–0 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 4 October 2025Kilmarnock 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 19 September 2025Kilmarnock 2–2 St MirrenLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and St Mirren

Kilmarnock

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

St Mirren

  • K. Phillips3 goals
  • Samu1 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.