Motherwell vs SC Freiburg UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Motherwell, 22% draw, 61% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs SC Freiburg
Motherwell
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
SC Freiburg
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Motherwell and SC Freiburg in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | Premiership | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Motherwell and SC Freiburg
Motherwell
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
- A. Lowry1 goals1 assists
SC Freiburg
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
- Y. Suzuki3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.