16 August 2026, 12:45 UTC

Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Motor Lublin 1-0 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Motor Lublin, 25% draw, 28% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Motor Lublin at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin96%Draw4%GKS Katowice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+3'
M. Wedrychowski
46'
🔁A. Czerwinskiout: P. Resta
46'
🔁M. Wedrychowskiout: S. Bartlewicz
•K. Czubak
49'
60'
•I. Shkurin
Kikis
64'
🔁Fabio Ronaldoout: M. Aiko
66'
B. Bereszynski
67'
71'
🔁M. Wdowiakout: B. Galan
71'
🔁E. Jirkaout: M. Wasielewski
🔁T. Santosout: K. Lukoszek
78'
⚽K. Czubakassist: M. Ndiaye
86'
89'
🔁B. Nowakout: E. Markovic
M. Bartos
90+6'
90+6'
L. Klemenz
🔁M. Legowskiout: P. Meyer
90+3'
🔁M. Ndiayeout: F. Haxha
90+3'
🔁K. Czubakout: D. Gregorski
90+3'

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice

41%Possession59%
15Shots11
5On target2
2Corners1
2.92xG1.1

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin1 from 2.92 xGless than the chances were worth
GKS Katowice0 from 1.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 18B. BereszynskiD
  • 39M. BartosD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 8KikisM
  • 6M. LegowskiM
  • 11Fabio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 4T. PlavoticD
  • 2P. MeyerD
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 13K. BrzozowskiD
  • 16F. LewandowskiM
  • 7I. RodriguesM
  • 19K. SzymanekM
  • 70M. AikoM
Coach: Mariusz Misiura
GKS Katowice 3-4-2-1
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwinskiD
  • 4A. JedrychD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 19K. LukasiakM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 10M. WedrychowskiF
  • 27B. NowakF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
Substitutes
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 55P. RestaD
  • 14M. Olsen
  • 8B. GalanM
  • 15E. MarkovicM
  • 5J. BoschM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 22S. MilewskiM
Coach: Rafal Gorak

Form going into Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice

Motor Lublin

  • L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
  • L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026

GKS Katowice

  • W2-1Hapoel Tel Aviv12 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv6 August 2026
  • W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
  • W3-1Žilina30 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Motor Lublin8125915-65
10GKS Katowice73041311+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice

  • 16 August 2026Motor Lublin 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 17 April 2026GKS Katowice 3–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 17 October 2025Motor Lublin 2–5 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 24 February 2025Motor Lublin 3–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 16 August 2024GKS Katowice 0–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 19 February 2024GKS Katowice 2–0 Motor LublinI Liga

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and GKS Katowice

Motor Lublin

  • K. Czubak5 goals

GKS Katowice

  • I. Shkurin5 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.