Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gornik Zabrze, 21% draw, 42% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.70, 4.76 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Krakow at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SacekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20JosemaD
- 21O. ZmrzlyD
- 18L. SadilekM
- 82K. UrbanskiM
- 8P. BernardoM
- 19Peter FedericoF
- 23S. LisethF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 64E. JanzaD
- 2P. Warczak
- 66M. DietzD
- 3M. SynosD
- 28B. DonioM
- 36M. RakoczyM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 1M. LubikG
- 2J. LelieveldD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 52J. KrzyzanowskiD
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 41K. DudaM
- 10F. DuarteM
- 9A. RodadoM
- 17M. BozicM
- 11J. SanchezF
- 28P. LetkiewiczG
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
- 4R. MikulecD
- 29D. GrujcicD
- 50M. KutwaD
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 20E. OmicM
- 21J. GuillemenotF
- 51M. KuziemkaM
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
Gornik Zabrze
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ferencvarosi TC5 August 2026
- D1-1Fenerbahçe29 July 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-1Wisla Plock7 August 2026
- L3-4away to Piast Gliwice1 August 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
- 16 August 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 17 November 2023Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Wisla KrakowFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2022Wisla Krakow 4–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 16 October 2021Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 5 March 2021Wisla Krakow 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 25 September 2020Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Wisla Krakow
- Jordi Sánchez6 goals1 assists
- Ángel Rodado3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.