Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Widzew Łódź, 28% draw, 21% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Widzew Łódź at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. Dragowski
- 70J. Gazibegovic
- 25P. Wisniewski
- 3S. Kapuadi
- 40M. Garcia
- 6J. Shehu
- 7M. Fornalczyk
- 8E. Kornvig
- 10F. Alvarez
- 28K. Swiderski
- 99S. Bergier
- 30V. Ilic
- 4M. Zyro
- 14R. Visus
- 91M. Krajewski
- 98Paulinho Boia
- 18L. Selahi
- 20A. Klukowski
- 77A. Baena Perez
- 57S. Akere
- 1X. Dziekonski
- 71W. Dlugosz
- 23S. Rubezic
- 44K. Sotiriou
- 6M. Pieczek
- 18P. Hellebrand
- 35K. Jakubczyk
- 9S. Davidovic
- 8M. Remacle
- 22M. Fassbender
- 14M. Stepinski
- 87R. Mamla
- 12M. Mikielewicz
- 24B. Smolarczyk
- 2A. Mosor
- 67N. Barczak
- 10Nono
- 11K. Matuszewski
- 37H. Zwozny
- 21K. Ciszek
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
Widzew Łódź
- W2-0away to Jagiellonia9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wisla Plock31 July 2026
- D2-2Motor Lublin26 July 2026
Korona Kielce
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Widzew Łódź | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
- 15 August 2026Widzew Łódź 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 15 May 2026Korona Kielce 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2025Widzew Łódź 1–3 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 11 April 2025Korona Kielce 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 4 December 2024Korona Kielce 1–0 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 4 October 2024Widzew Łódź 0–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.