Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Cracovia Krakow, 25% draw, 21% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cracovia Krakow at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13S. MadejskiG
- 79D. PilaD
- 4G. HenrikssonD
- 61B. TraoreD
- 39M. PerkovicD
- 43M. KlichM
- 6A. Al AmmariM
- 14A. HasicM
- 70D. KameriM
- 17M. MinchevM
- 18K. ZahiroleslamF
- 23H. RavasG
- 77J. ChrapustaG
- 28V. BurletD
- 15K. GlikD
- 25O. KakabadzeD
- 7M. PraszelikM
- 92M. SkoczylasM
- 19M. TabiszM
- 29W. DejM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 2J. NapierajD
- 20J. C. SilvaM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 9P. MakuchF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 21T. PienkoF
- 71T. KaricG
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 10V. KocherginM
- 22O. Abraham
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 88A. Molnar
- 15O. KwiatkowskiM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Krakow
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cracovia Krakow | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
- 16 August 2026Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 19 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 4–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 October 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Cracovia KrakowCup
- 18 October 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 1 February 2025Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 29 July 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Krakow
- A. Hasić3 goals1 assists
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.