15 August 2026, 12:45 UTC

Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result

KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Full time2 1

Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Zaglebie Lubin, 21% draw, 23% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zaglebie Lubin96%Draw4%Slask Wroclaw0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
M. Llinares
22'
G. Tomasiewicz
34'
P. Samiec-Talarassist: P. M. Dembele
J. Corluka
52'
🔁F. Szymczakout: L. Szabo
69'
🔁I. Orlikowskiout: J. Sypek
69'
🔁S. Kerkout: M. Mlinaric
69'
74'
🔁P. M. Dembeleout: L. Marjanac
74'
🔁A. Timossiout: M. Rosiak
L. Szaboassist: J. Corluka
85'
L. Szabo
86'
M. Regula
87'
89'
🔁J. Yriarteout: A. Ciucka
🔁M. Regulaout: J. Kolan
89'
90+5'
🔁P. Banaszakout: M. Stangret
🔁D. Dabrowskiout: D. Michalski
90+12'

Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw

58%Possession42%
12Shots12
5On target2
8Corners0
0.89xG1.26

Goals against chances

Zaglebie Lubin2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Slask Wroclaw1 from 1.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin
  • 33Z. Alomerovic
  • 31I. Orlikowski
  • 25M. Nalepa
  • 5A. Lawniczak
  • 13M. Grzybek
  • 8D. Dabrowski
  • 39F. Kocaba
  • 37S. Kerk
  • 16J. Corluka
  • 44M. Regula
  • 18F. Szymczak
Substitutes
  • 1J. Buric
  • 26J. Kolan
  • 4D. Michalski
  • 38S. Karasinski
  • 94M. Urbanski
  • 7J. Sypek
  • 88M. Mlinaric
  • 20M. Dziewiatowski
  • 71K. Nowogonski
Coach: Leszek Ojrzynski
Slask Wroclaw
  • 1K. Niemczycki
  • 21A. Timossi
  • 33Y. Matsenko
  • 44M. Malec
  • 3I. Christodoulou
  • 8M. Llinares
  • 7P. Samiec-Talar
  • 15J. Yriarte
  • 20G. Tomasiewicz
  • 19P. Banaszak
  • 10P. M. Dembele
Substitutes
  • 25M. Szromnik
  • 31H. Sliczniak
  • 2D. Szala
  • 26A. Zulewski
  • 4M. Dijakovic
  • 27M. Rosiak
  • 38D. Markowski
  • 11L. Marjanac
  • 23M. Stangret
Coach: Ante Simundza

Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw

Zaglebie Lubin

  • L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
  • W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026

Slask Wroclaw

  • D0-0Cracovia Krakow9 August 2026
  • W2-1Raków Częstochowa2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Zaglebie Lubin8431118+315
15Slask Wroclaw81341013-36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw

  • 15 August 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
  • 31 January 2026Slask Wroclaw 2–2 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 May 2025Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 4 November 2024Zaglebie Lubin 3–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
  • 15 December 2023Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
  • 29 July 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw

Zaglebie Lubin

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Slask Wroclaw

  • P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.