13 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sassuolo vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result

Reggio Emilia
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sassuolo, 28% draw, 34% Juventus — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sassuolo at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sassuolo96%Draw4%Juventus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Jhon Lucumí
46'
🔁J. Lucumiout: L. Kelly
Luca Lipani
48'
🔁L. Lipaniout: D. Bakola
55'
60'
🔁N. Gonzalezout: N. Woltemade
60'
🔁F. Conceicaoout: E. Zhegrova
⚽S. Espositoassist: N. Matic
65'
🔁K. Thorstvedtout: V. Adzic
71'
🔁S. Espositoout: B. Dominguez
71'
🔁D. Berardiout: K. Bowie
71'
71'
🔁T. Koopmeinersout: P. M. Sarr
76'
Douglas Luiz
🔁J. Idzesout: D. Caleta-Car
81'
82'
⚽E. Zhegrova
87'
🔁K. Alajbegovicout: J. Oboavwoduo
⚽K. Bowieassist: D. Bakola
89'
Fedde Leysen
90+3'
90'
⚽E. Zhegrovaassist: R. Kolo Muani
⚽V. Adzicassist: A. Lauriente
90'

Match stats — Sassuolo vs Juventus

45%Possession55%
10Shots18
6On target8
3Corners9
0.88xG1

Goals against chances

Sassuolo3 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth
Juventus2 from 1.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sassuolo 4-2-3-1
  • 49A. MuricG
  • 46S. CinquegranoD
  • 21J. IdzesD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 18N. MaticM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 10D. BerardiM
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 45A. LaurienteM
  • 94S. EspositoF
Substitutes
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 22L. NyarkoG
  • 15D. Caleta-CarD
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 33R. ObradorD
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 17V. AdzicM
  • 55I. SulemanaM
Coach: Alberto Aquilani
Juventus 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. VicarioG
  • 15P. KaluluD
  • 3BremerD
  • 26J. LucumiD
  • 2Z. CelikD
  • 12Douglas LuizM
  • 8T. KoopmeinersM
  • 7F. ConceicaoM
  • 31N. GonzalezM
  • 17K. AlajbegovicM
  • 9R. Kolo MuaniF
Substitutes
  • 23C. PinsoglioG
  • 1K. GrabaraG
  • 6L. KellyD
  • 4F. GattiD
  • 24D. RuganiD
  • 43F. PagnuccoD
  • 41A. OwusuM
  • 29P. M. SarrM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
Coach: Luciano Spalletti

Form going into Sassuolo vs Juventus

Sassuolo

  • D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026

Juventus

  • D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
  • W2-0Parma29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sassuolo421187+17
8Juventus421164+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Juventus

  • 13 September 2026Sassuolo 3–2 JuventusSerie A
  • 21 March 2026Juventus 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
  • 6 January 2026Sassuolo 0–3 JuventusSerie A
  • 16 January 2024Juventus 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 23 September 2023Sassuolo 4–2 JuventusSerie A
  • 16 April 2023Sassuolo 1–0 JuventusSerie A

Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Juventus

Sassuolo

  • Vasilije Adžić2 goals1 assists

Juventus

  • E. Zhegrova2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.