Cruz Azul vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 4-3 Club America.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Cruz Azul, 25% draw, 27% Club America — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Club America
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 17A. GarciaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 6E. LiraM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 33G. PioviD
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 21G. FernandezF
- 11C. EbereF
- 29C. RotondiF
- 30R. CotaG
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 3I. ReyesD
- 29R. JuarezD
- 5K. AlvarezD
- 28E. SanchezM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 12I. ViolanteM
- 23Raphael VeigaM
- 7B. RodriguezM
- 9H. MartinF
- 1L. MalagonG
- 26C. BorjaD
- 2E. LaraD
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 217IcaroM
- 20A. H. Gutierrez TorresM
- 93Miguel BorjaF
- 10A. ZendejasF
- 22O. PereaF
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Club America
Cruz Azul
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
Club America
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Club America
- 13 September 2026Cruz Azul 4–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 12 April 2026Club America 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 19 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 19 May 2025Club America 2–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 16 May 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Club America 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Club America
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
- N. Ibáñez3 goals
Club America
- H. Martín3 goals1 assists
- B. Rodríguez3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.