Genoa vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Genoa, 29% draw, 28% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Genoa at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Frosinone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Justin BijlowG
- 27Alessandro MarcandalliD
- 5Leo ØstigårdD
- 22Johan VásquezD
- 3Kingsley EhizibueM
- 32Morten FrendrupM
- 8Tommaso BaldanziM
- 97Djibril SowM
- 77Mikael EllertssonM
- 29Lorenzo ColomboF
- 18Milutin OsmajićF
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 92Stephan El ShaarawyF
- 9VitinhaF
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 11Franz-Ethan MeichtryM
- 99Franz StolzG
- 39Daniele SommarivaG
- 34Sebastian OtoaD
- 31David PuczkaD
- 22Lorenzo PalmisaniG
- 20Anthony OyonoD
- 3Gabriele CalvaniD
- 2Giorgio CittadiniD
- 79Gabriele BracagliaD
- 14Giacomo CalòM
- 73Patrizio MasiniM
- 7Farès GhedjemisM
- 10Romano SchmidM
- 17Giorgi KvernadzeM
- 9Antonio RaimondoF
- 30Ilario MonterisiD
- 70Luis HasaM
- 89Tomáš BobčekF
- 40Seydou FiniF
- 24Alessio ZerbinF
- 91Sebastiano DesplanchesG
- 12Matteo PisseriG
- 90Enzo Tchato MbiayiD
- 5Wisdom AmeyD
Form going into Genoa vs Frosinone
Genoa
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
Frosinone
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Frosinone
- 30 March 2024Genoa 1–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 26 November 2023Frosinone 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 13 May 2023Frosinone 3–2 GenoaSerie B
- 18 December 2022Genoa 1–0 FrosinoneSerie B
- 3 March 2019Genoa 0–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and Frosinone
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Genoa and Frosinone drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Genoa at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Kvernadze 14' for Frosinone, J. Vasquez 50' for Genoa. Sent off: J. Vasquez (Genoa) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.86–2.03.