Lazio vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lazio, 29% draw, 32% AC Milan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lazio vs AC Milan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Christos MandasG
- 15Romano Floriani MussoliniD
- 37Josip ŠutaloD
- 25Oliver ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16Davide FrattesiM
- 21Reda BelahyaneM
- 24Kenneth TaylorM
- 22Matteo CancellieriF
- 14Tijjani NoslinF
- 10Mattia ZaccagniF
- 11Gustav IsaksenF
- 9Andrea PinamontiF
- 80Albert GuðmundssonF
- 29Manuel LazzariM
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 47Davide RenzettiG
- 40Edoardo MottaG
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 23Alfonso PedrazaD
- 16Mike MaignanG
- 34Mario GilaD
- 5Koni De WinterD
- 31Strahinja PavlovićD
- 21Samuel ChukwuezeM
- 14Luka ModrićM
- 12Adrien RabiotM
- 2Pervis EstupiñánM
- 8Ruben Loftus-CheekF
- 70Alphadjo CissèF
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 22Diego MoreiraF
- 80Yunus MusahM
- 11Christian PulišićM
- 20Omari HutchinsonF
- 73Francesco CamardaF
- 96Lorenzo TorrianiG
- 1Pietro TerraccianoG
- 13Sankhoun DiawaraD
- 42Filippo TerraccianoD
Form going into Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
AC Milan
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs AC Milan
- 15 March 2026Lazio 1–0 AC MilanSerie A
- 4 December 2025Lazio 1–0 AC MilanCoppa Italia
- 29 November 2025AC Milan 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 2 March 2025AC Milan 1–2 LazioSerie A
- 31 August 2024Lazio 2–2 AC MilanSerie A
Leading scorers: Lazio and AC Milan
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot54
- A. Cissè50
- Diego Moreira43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio and AC Milan drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lazio at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Cancellieri 10' for Lazio, T. Noslin 39' for Lazio, D. Moreira 65' for AC Milan, D. Moreira 67' for AC Milan. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.09.