8 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Neman, Grodno
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Neman 2-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Neman, 26% draw, 18% FC Dnepr Mogilev — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neman at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neman98%Draw2%FC Dnepr Mogilev0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Artem Varganovassist: Dmitriy·Lisakovich
Dmitri Girs
15'
⚽Danu Spătaruassist: Ruslan Lisakovich
29'
⚽Danu Spătaruassist: Oleg Evdokimov
49'
62'
🔁Nikita Tereshchukout: V. Stepanenko
62'
🔁Kirill Tsepenkovout: Aleksey Dunaev
🔁Pavel Savitskiyout: Andrija Ratkovic
65'
🔁Oleg Evdokimovout: Anton Suchkov
65'
73'
🔁Egor Karpitskiyout: R. Pilecki
🔁Mikhail Kozlovout: Andrey Yakimov
78'
🔁Danu Spătaruout: Maxim Kravtsov
88'

Match stats — Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

58%Possession42%
14Shots11
7On target7
7Corners8

Line-ups

Neman 4-2-3-1
  • 16N. MatysyukG
  • 55D. GirsD
  • 4A. VasiljevD
  • 14S. JimohD
  • 32Y. PavlyukovetsD
  • 47M. KozlovM
  • 10D. LisakovichM
  • 15O. EvdokimovM
  • 9S. PushnyakovM
  • 33D. SpătaruM
  • 88P. SavitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 2V. TonkevichD
  • 22I. KirkoD
  • 6A. NazarenkoM
  • 17A. SuchkovM
  • 7A. RatkovićF
  • 1A. MalievskiyG
  • 19A. DaynekoM
  • 52Maksim AleksandrovM
  • 24A. YakimovM
Coach: I. Kovalevich
FC Dnepr Mogilev 4-3-3
  • 33A. SinenkoG
  • 17A. PotapenkoD
  • 8S. RusakD
  • 5A. VarganovD
  • 15M. KasarabD
  • 37K. TsepenkovM
  • 89V. HarutyunyanM
  • 11D. LisakovichM
  • 21E. KarpitskiyF
  • 66N. TereshchukF
  • 10K. ZabelinF
Substitutes
  • 23A. DunaevD
  • 74David CherkasovD
  • 22N. SednevG
  • 26F. YurkevichD
  • 27R. PiletskiyM
  • 99V. StepanenkoF
  • 77Dmitri GushchenkoG
  • 3Nenad PerovićD
Coach: I. Kriushenko

Form going into Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

Neman

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk1 November 2026
  • L1-4Dinamo Brest25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to ML Vitebsk18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Premier League

  • W2-1FC Gomel31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk25 October 2026
  • W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
  • L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Neman scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Neman had two goals or fewer.
  • FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for FC Dnepr Mogilev had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Neman2815493526+949
15FC Dnepr Mogilev28411132743-1623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

  • 28 June 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–0 NemanPremier League
  • 27 January 2025FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 NemanFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 August 2024Neman 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 13 April 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–2 NemanPremier League
  • 23 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 NemanFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2022Neman 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League

The result against the call

Neman beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1. The model had made a win for Neman its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Artem Varganov 6' for FC Dnepr Mogilev, Danu Spătaru 29' for Neman, Danu Spătaru 49' for Neman.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neman a 5.3% chance to finish in the top four: 7.5% after a win, 1.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.5%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For FC Dnepr Mogilev the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 55.0% going in: 17.0% after a win, 46.0% after a draw, 65.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.8%, 10.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Neman v FC Dnepr Mogilev has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 26% / 18%: the biggest move is Neman's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Neman win56%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. FC Dnepr Mogilev win18%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.