8 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 1. Lig prediction & result

17 Eylül Stadium, Balikesir
Referee: Yucel Buyuk
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Bandırmaspor 0-4 Fatih Karagümrük.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Bandırmaspor, 32% draw, 26% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bandırmaspor at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Gianni Bruno (OG)
20'
Dorukhan Toköz
22'
⚽Yaya Onogoassist: Ahmed Traore
Remi Mulumba
25'
25'
Ahmed Traore
🔁Kerem Dönertaşout: Dean Lico
29'
Lucas Lima
34'
🔁Enes Cinemreout: Muhammed Gümüşkaya
45'
🔁Amidou Badjiout: Emirhan Ayhan
45'
🔁Gianni Brunoout: Recep Dilek
58'
67'
Yaya Onogo
Enes Aydın
71'
73'
🔁Emre Akbabaout: Daniele Verde
76'
🔁Yaya Onogoout: Marius Tresor Doh
76'
🔁Tiago Cukurout: Cenk Tosun
Enes Aydın
79'
🔁Tosin Kehindeout: Arda Midilic
81'
86'
🔁Ahmed Traoreout: J. Esen
87'
⚽Baris Kalayci
90+2'
⚽Daniele Verdeassist: Candan Baskale
90+3'
•Daniele Verde

Match stats — Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

46%Possession54%
5Shots21
3On target11
2Corners7
0.71xG2.66

Goals against chances

Bandırmaspor0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Fatih Karagümrük4 from 2.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 99F. BekleviçG
  • 22A. ÜlgenD
  • 14Y. KocatürkD
  • 34Enes AydınD
  • 6Lucas LimaD
  • 92R. MulumbaM
  • 11T. KehindeM
  • 23K. DonertasM
  • 20E. ÇinemreM
  • 29A. BadjiM
  • 9G. BrunoF
Substitutes
  • 77H. BilgiçD
  • 3A. BilerD
  • 17Emirhan AyhanM
  • 16A. AlkanG
  • 90Recep Yalın DilekF
  • 7M. GençM
  • 10M. GümüşkayaM
  • 8D. LiçoM
  • 19Yasin MidilicD
Coach: Ertuğrul Arslan
Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SilvestriG
  • 25M. SarıkayaD
  • 4D. BiraschiD
  • 6R. YalçınD
  • 21Candan BaskaleD
  • 19Y. OnogoM
  • 8D. ToközM
  • 26Traore AhmedM
  • 5E. AkbabaM
  • 7Baris KalayciM
  • 11T. ÇukurF
Substitutes
  • 14Marius Tresor DohM
  • 24B. ErsoyM
  • 41J. EsenM
  • 17Tarık Buğra KalpaklıF
  • 33Ç. KurukalıpD
  • 9C. TosunF
  • 10D. VerdeF
  • 28A. ÇınarD
  • 23B. ŞenG
Coach: Salvatore Bocchetti

Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Bandırmaspor

1. Lig

  • L0-3away to Bursaspor31 October 2026
  • L1-2Iğdır FK24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
  • D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026

Fatih Karagümrük

1. Lig

  • L0-1Pendikspor31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sarıyer24 October 2026
  • L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bandırmaspor did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Bandırmaspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bandırmaspor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Fatih Karagümrük had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Bandırmaspor143561717014
9Fatih Karagümrük145452016+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

  • 29 May 2025Fatih Karagümrük 3–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 5 March 2025Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 19 October 2024Bandırmaspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
  • 30 October 2019Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 BandırmasporTürkiye Kupası
  • 3 April 2019Fatih Karagümrük 3–2 Bandırmaspor2. Lig
  • 11 November 2018Bandırmaspor 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig

Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük

Bandırmaspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Bruno50

Fatih Karagümrük

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pešić52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fatih Karagümrük won 4–0 at Bandırmaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Bandırmaspor at 42% and given a win for Fatih Karagümrük 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gianni Bruno (own goal) 11' for Fatih Karagümrük, Yaya Onogo 22' for Fatih Karagümrük, Baris Kalayci 87' for Fatih Karagümrük, Daniele Verde 90+2' for Fatih Karagümrük. Sent off: Enes Aydın (Bandırmaspor) 79'. On expected goals it finished 0.71–2.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bandırmaspor a 10.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.2% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.2%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For Fatih Karagümrük the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 4.1% going in: 1.9% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.9%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.