8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Referee: Ante Culina
Full time0 – 1

Final score: NK Osijek 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% NK Osijek, 28% draw, 46% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek0%Draw3%HNK Hajduk Split97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Armando León
12'
•Luka Jelenic
17'
Luka Jelenic
19'
Oleksandr Petrusenko
27'
54'
Khalil Fayad
🔁Niko Farkasout: Ivan Dolček
61'
🔁Alejandro Canteroout: Admir Ljatifi
61'
62'
🔁Adam Huramout: Marin Šotiček
62'
🔁Andelo Šutaloout: Abdoulie Sanyang
74'
🔁Leander Dendonckerout: Dalisson De Almeida Leite
74'
🔁Michele Šegoout: Carlos Martín Domínguez
Jay Kruiver
77'
🔁Jay Kruiverout: Luka Posavec
84'
89'
⚽Carlos Martín Domínguezassist: Dalisson De Almeida Leite
🔁Luka Tunjicout: Miguel Ângelo Bastos Melo
90'
🔁Armando Leónout: Ivan Barić
90'
90'
Carlos Martín Domínguez
90+4'
🔁Khalil Fayadout: Alec Van Hoorenbeeck

Match stats — NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split

46%Possession54%
10Shots11
3On target4
3Corners8
0.63xG1.14

Goals against chances

NK Osijek0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth
HNK Hajduk Split1 from 1.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
  • 39D. BukvićM
  • 11Luka TunjicM
  • 21CanteroM
  • 79A. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 9I. BarićF
  • 67B. BaktiM
  • 99BaleloF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 7I. DolčekF
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 30A. LjatifiF
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 24L. PosavecD
Coach: Fede Bessone
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 15D. MarešićD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 18L. DendonckerM
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 11M. ŠegoF
Substitutes
  • 9DaliM
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 7A. SanyangF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 38L. HodakD
Coach: Gonzalo García

Form going into NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split

NK Osijek

HNL

  • W3-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 November 2026
  • L0-1Rudes25 October 2026
  • D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
  • L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

HNL

  • W5-0HNK Gorica31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Istra 196126 October 2026
  • W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026

What these results say

  • NK Osijek conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • NK Osijek failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NK Osijek scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3NK Osijek136252218+420
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 23 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 21 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 15 February 2026NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 8 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 24 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 27 April 2025NK Osijek 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León61
  • N. Omerović50

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split won 1–0 at NK Osijek. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 46%. The goal: Carlos Martín Domínguez 89' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 0.63–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Osijek a 31.6% chance to finish in the top four: 40.0% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.6%, 5 points lower than before the match.

For HNK Hajduk Split the question was the chance to win the league, 41.3% going in: 44.9% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Osijek v HNK Hajduk Split has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 28% / 29% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is HNK Hajduk Split's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. NK Osijek win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. HNK Hajduk Split win46%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.