NEOM vs Al-Fateh Pro League prediction & result
Final score: NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% NEOM, 27% draw, 24% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
NEOM at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NEOM vs Al-Fateh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BulkaG
- 15A. Al OyayariD
- 5M. SarrD
- 44N. ZezeD
- 27I. HawsawiD
- 77M. Al SaadM
- 18A. Hejji
- 72A. KoneM
- 14K. Al AbsiM
- 91A. LacazetteF
- 70H. CamaraF
- 33A. Dagriri
- 19M. Abu TahaD
- 55M. Al DossaryD
- 4K. Al DawsariD
- 8F. Al GhamdiM
- 6A. Al Hassan
- 23V. VadaM
- 7G. MasourasF
- 22A. Al AnziF
- 1A. SemperG
- 87Bin Mahmoud
- 4Z. Al JariD
- 8M. LixandruD
- 16A. I. Al KhaibariD
- 6A. Al HassanM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 80F. Al AbdulwahedM
- 11M. BatnaF
- 9W. KangaF
- 10L. HaraslinF
- 94W. Al EneziG
- 19R. KelderD
- 63M. Al ShqaqD
- 22A. R. Al Khaibre
- 25M. Al Sahihi
- 7F. Al ZubaidiF
- 49S. Al SharfaF
- 20H. EssadakM
- 21Ramos JeffersonF
Form going into NEOM vs Al-Fateh
NEOM
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
Al-Fateh
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: NEOM and Al-Fateh
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette72
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NEOM beat Al-Fateh 4–2. The model had made a win for NEOM its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Lacazette (penalty) 16' for NEOM, M. Batna 41' for Al-Fateh, A. Kone 51' for NEOM, W. Kanga 64' for Al-Fateh, A. Lacazette 70' for NEOM, V. Vada 79' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.26.
How the call on NEOM v Al-Fateh has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is NEOM's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- NEOM win49%▲ +7
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Al-Fateh win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.