NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 28% draw, 42% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Line-ups
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 5M. ČabrajaD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 6F. FetaiM
- 23M. VešovićM
- 8I. KatićM
- 9L. BelcarM
- 7D. VukovićM
- 28N. ĐurkovićF
- 22M. AntunovićF
- 21T. KralevskiD
- 14M. LorberM
- 26M. DardanM
- 30D. ReicM
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 10M. SubotićM
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 10T. FrukM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 14A. GojakM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 1V. KovacG
- 12Domagoj Ivan MarićG
- 9M. MohebiM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
- 12 September 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 3 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 1 March 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 30 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 13 September 2025HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 April 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković2 goals2 assists
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.