NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 28% draw, 42% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Rijeka at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Line-ups
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 5M. ČabrajaD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 6F. FetaiM
- 23M. VešovićM
- 8I. KatićM
- 9L. BelcarM
- 7D. VukovićM
- 28N. ĐurkovićF
- 22M. AntunovićF
- 21T. KralevskiD
- 14M. LorberM
- 26M. DardanM
- 30D. ReicM
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 10M. SubotićM
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 10T. FrukM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 14A. GojakM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 1V. KovacG
- 12Domagoj Ivan MarićG
- 9M. MohebiM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
- 3 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 1 March 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 30 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 13 September 2025HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 April 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Rijeka at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Dantas 52' for HNK Rijeka, Marko Vešović 65' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
How the call on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v HNK Rijeka has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is HNK Rijeka's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win30%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- HNK Rijeka win42%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.