12 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Full time4 – 2

Final score: NK Osijek 4-2 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% NK Osijek, 29% draw, 36% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek99%Draw1%Dinamo Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Domagoj Bukvic
2'
⚽Armando Leónassist: Domagoj Bukvic
12'
22'
Luka Stojkovic
Jay Kruiver
24'
⚽Armando León
35'
45'
🔁Iker Almena Horcajoout: Mateo Lisica
45'
🔁Moris Valincicout: Niko Galesic
45'
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Lukas Kacavenda
Jona Ježić
51'
58'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Luka Ivanušec
⚽Luka vrbancicassist: Armando León
60'
61'
⚽Miha Zajc
🔁Simun Mikolcicout: Oleksandr Petrusenko
62'
🔁Jona Ježićout: Ivan Barić
62'
73'
Matteo Perez Vinlöf
77'
🔁Josip Mišićout: Fran Topic
🔁Jay Kruiverout: Luka Posavec
77'
🔁Admir ljatifiout: Balazs Bakti
77'
Luka Jelenic
78'
79'
Fran Topic
🔁Armando Leónout: Niko Farkas
88'
90+2'
⚽Smail Prevljak (pen)
⚽Domagoj Bukvic
90+5'

Match stats — NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

42%Possession58%
17Shots12
9On target4
2Corners6

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-3-3
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 8Š. MikolčićM
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 48J. JezicM
  • 39D. BukvićF
  • 79A. LeónF
  • 30A. LjatifiF
Substitutes
  • 99BaleloF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 46I. BarićF
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 33E. HasićD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
Coach: Fede Bessone
Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 23Iker AlmenaM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 14S. PrevljakF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 77N. NsokiM
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 6S. RadeljićD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

NK Osijek

  • L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
  • W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

  • W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
  • W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
  • W4-0Rudes14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2NK Osijek75021711+615
4Dinamo Zagreb6411147+713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 12 September 2026NK Osijek 4–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 4 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 7–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 25 January 2026NK Osijek 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 18 October 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 2 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 12 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK OsijekHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Dinamo Zagreb

NK Osijek

  • A. León5 goals1 assists
  • N. Omerović5 goals

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo7 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.