Atalanta vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atalanta, 30% draw, 28% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 3O. KossounouD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 23S. KolasinacD
- 10L. SamardzicM
- 19F. KessieM
- 13EdersonM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 11J. RoweF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 22T. PompeiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 40R. ObricD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 99E. ElmasM
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 8M. PasalicM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2J. PedroD
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodriguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 8M. AdopoM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 70D. MaldiniF
- 31P. MendyF
- 23B. RadunovicG
- 12A. SherriG
- 26Y. MinaD
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 24G. AurelioD
- 32I. SulevM
- 27J. LitetaM
- 30D. AkarakiriM
- 21R. GagliardiniM
Form going into Atalanta vs Cagliari
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026
Cagliari
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Cagliari
- 27 April 2026Cagliari 3–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 13 December 2025Atalanta 2–1 CagliariSerie A
- 15 February 2025Atalanta 0–0 CagliariSerie A
- 14 December 2024Cagliari 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 7 April 2024Cagliari 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Cagliari
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari won 2–1 at Atalanta. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 42% and given a win for Cagliari 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Mendy 19' for Cagliari, G. Scamacca 41' for Atalanta, D. Maldini (penalty) 61' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 1.26–1.10.
How the call on Atalanta v Cagliari has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Cagliari's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Atalanta win42%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Cagliari win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.