Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Diriyah 1-0 Al Riyadh.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al Diriyah, 28% draw, 25% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Diriyah at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97Amin Al BukhariG
- 12T. WadiD
- 19B. DjimsitiD
- 99C. MbembaD
- 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
- 14Óscar RodríguezM
- 88Abdulelah Al MalkiM
- 20E. MillotM
- 25L. ChelfiF
- 29D. NúñezF
- 17C. DiandyF
- 75Meshari Al NemerF
- 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
- 78Khalid Al AsiriD
- 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
- 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
- 10A. BoulbinaF
- 21M. HameranD
- 87Qassem LajamiD
- 6Sultan Al FarhanM
- 82M. BorjanG
- 2Sultan AlessaD
- 5Hossam MajrashiD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 23Hussain QasimD
- 10T. OkouM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 6K. KeitaM
- 11H. Al AliM
- 43B. MensahM
- 7TrézéguetF
- 17Hussain Al-RaqwaniF
- 19A. M. Al HarthiM
- 14Essam BahriD
- 12Sulaiman HazaziD
- 32Awad DahalD
- 28J. PetekG
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 13Osama Al BowardiD
- 76Ahmed Al AnaziD
Form going into Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
Al Diriyah
Pro League
- D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
Al Riyadh
Pro League
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Al Diriyah beat Al Riyadh 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al Diriyah at 47%. The goal: Óscar Rodríguez 13' for Al Diriyah. On expected goals it finished 1.31–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Riyadh a 31.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.6% after a win, 30.0% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 48% / 29% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Al Riyadh's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Al Diriyah win47%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Al Riyadh win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.