20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Stevenage vs Plymouth League One prediction & result

Lamex Stadium, Stevenage
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Stevenage 3-0 Plymouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Stevenage, 29% draw, 36% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stevenage99%Draw1%Plymouth0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Ronan Curtis
Louis Thompson
7'
⚽Michael Mellonassist: Josh Magennis
19'
⚽Josh Magennis
27'
Alex Revell
33'
45'
🔁Ronan Curtisout: Xavier Amaechi
45'
🔁Oliver Irowout: Caleb Watts
🔁Ben Broggioout: Phoenix Patterson
64'
🔁Michael Mellonout: O. Sanderson
64'
🔁Louis Thompsonout: Terry·Taylor
74'
76'
🔁Joe Edwardsout: Matthew Sorinola
76'
🔁Tyreeq Bakinsonout: Bradley Ibrahim
⚽Phoenix Pattersonassist: Daniel Kemp
83'
87'
🔁Alex·Hartridgeout: Julio Pleguezuelo

Match stats — Stevenage vs Plymouth

49%Possession51%
17Shots13
7On target1
5Corners5
1.32xG0.97

Goals against chances

Stevenage3 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
Plymouth0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stevenage 4-4-1-1
  • 1T. SetfordG
  • 2L. James-WildinD
  • 15T. VancootenD
  • 5C. PiergianniD
  • 14S. EarleyD
  • 28M. MellonM
  • 23L. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PhillipsM
  • 27B. BroggioM
  • 10D. KempM
  • 9J. MagennisF
Substitutes
  • 12D. BardenG
  • 20C. CampbellM
  • 16K. CaseyD
  • 44P. PattersonF
  • 18O. SandersonF
  • 4T. TaylorM
  • 19T. TurhanF
Coach: A. Revell
Plymouth 4-4-2
  • 1M. MahoneyG
  • 8J. EdwardsD
  • 15A. MitchellD
  • 22A. HartridgeD
  • 45W. HardingD
  • 11R. CurtisM
  • 19T. BakinsonM
  • 7H. WhiteM
  • 14O. IrowM
  • 9W. EvansF
  • 27A. PeppleF
Substitutes
  • 17C. WattsM
  • 21James StorerG
  • 29M. SorinolaD
  • 5Julio PleguezueloD
  • 3Jack MackenzieD
  • 23B. IbrahimM
  • 10X. AmaechiF
Coach: Tom Cleverley

Form going into Stevenage vs Plymouth

Stevenage

League One

  • L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
  • W1-0Wigan10 October 2026

Plymouth

League One

  • L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Stevenage124441713+416
6Plymouth157262122-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Plymouth

  • 17 March 2026Plymouth 1–0 StevenageLeague One
  • 1 January 2026Stevenage 1–1 PlymouthLeague One
  • 25 January 2020Stevenage 1–2 PlymouthLeague Two
  • 29 December 2019Plymouth 2–1 StevenageLeague Two
  • 10 November 2018Plymouth 1–0 StevenageFA Cup

Leading scorers: Stevenage and Plymouth

Stevenage

No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stevenage beat Plymouth 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Plymouth at 36% and given a win for Stevenage 35%. The goals: Michael Mellon 19' for Stevenage, Josh Magennis 27' for Stevenage, Phoenix Patterson 83' for Stevenage. On expected goals it finished 1.32–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stevenage a 5.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 3.2% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.2%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For Plymouth the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 20.6% going in: 24.1% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.7%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.