20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Oxford United vs Wigan League One prediction & result

Kassam Stadium, Oxford
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Oxford United 2-1 Wigan.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Oxford United, 28% draw, 18% Wigan — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oxford United at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oxford United98%Draw2%Wigan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Jensen Weir
31'
Charlie Gray
⚽Michał Helik
44'
52'
🔁Connor Barrettout: Christian Saydee
52'
🔁Charlie Grayout: Reggie Walsh
🔁Tyler Goodrhamout: Aidomo Emakhu
64'
🔁Mo Missangaout: Luka Lynch
64'
67'
🔁Scott Hoganout: Jon Mellish
Cameron Brannagan
68'
69'
⚽Christian Saydeeassist: Jon Mellish
72'
Fraser Murray
75'
Gary Caldwell
⚽Kai Andrewsassist: Siriki Dembele
76'
Siriki Dembele
79'
83'
🔁Archie Harrisout: K'Marni Miller
83'
🔁Bradley Burrowesout: Chris Sze
🔁Siriki Dembeleout: Louie Sibley
84'
85'
Finley Burns
Mark Harris
89'
🔁Mark Harrisout: L. Snowden
90+3'

Match stats — Oxford United vs Wigan

62%Possession38%
24Shots7
7On target1
9Corners1
1.99xG0.54

Goals against chances

Oxford United2 from 1.99 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wigan1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oxford United 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. CummingG
  • 15B. SpencerD
  • 6M. HelikD
  • 3C. BrownD
  • 26J. CurrieD
  • 8C. BrannaganM
  • 4Kai AndrewsM
  • 57M. MissangaM
  • 11T. GoodrhamM
  • 23S. DembéléM
  • 9M. HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 20L. LynchF
  • 2S. LongD
  • 22G. LeighD
  • 10A. EmakhuF
  • 13S. EastwoodG
  • 32L. SibleyM
  • 27L. SnowdenF
Coach: A. Ramsey
Wigan 4-2-3-1
  • 41J. WhitworthG
  • 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
  • 5F. BurnsD
  • 3M. FoxD
  • 16Archie HarrisD
  • 18Charlie GrayM
  • 6J. WeirM
  • 2C. BarrettM
  • 27B. BurrowsM
  • 7F. MurrayM
  • 25S. HoganF
Substitutes
  • 22J. MellishD
  • 21K'Marni MillerD
  • 38C. SaydeeF
  • 9S. PerkinsF
  • 19C. SzeF
  • 1J. WalshG
  • 10R. WalshM
Coach: G. Caldwell

Form going into Oxford United vs Wigan

Oxford United

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Mansfield Town15 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Notts County10 October 2026

Wigan

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Reading17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Stevenage10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Oxford United137512211+1126
19Wigan154291323-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oxford United vs Wigan

  • 13 February 2024Oxford United 4–2 WiganLeague One
  • 24 October 2023Wigan 2–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
  • 1 February 2022Wigan 1–1 Oxford UnitedLeague One
  • 18 December 2021Oxford United 2–3 WiganLeague One
  • 14 February 2021Oxford United 2–1 WiganLeague One

Leading scorers: Oxford United and Wigan

Oxford United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Harris61
  • G. O'Donkor42

Wigan

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oxford United beat Wigan 2–1. The model had made a win for Oxford United its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Michał Helik 44' for Oxford United, Christian Saydee 69' for Wigan, Kai Andrews 76' for Oxford United. Sent off: Fraser Murray (Wigan) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.99–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oxford United a 28.7% chance to finish in the top two: 31.3% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.3%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Wigan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 44.7% going in: 36.1% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 46.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.7%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Oxford United v Wigan has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 50% / 29% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 28% / 18%: the biggest move is Oxford United's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Oxford United win54%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Wigan win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.